Maui Invitational Preview

Syracuse kicks off their first real test of the young season tonight at 5:30 EST with a first round battle in the Maui Invitational against Minnesota.  It'll be the first of 3 games in 3 nights and thankfully all will be televised on the ESPN TV family of networks, and not that red-headed stepchild ESPN3.  Let's take a sneak peek at what lies ahead for the Orange.

First Round

Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-0)

Best Win:  @ Richmond 74-59

Beating a top-100 team in a true road game this early in the season is legit.

Best Player(s):  Andre and Austin Hollins

Oddly enough, the Gophers two starting guards are both from Tennessee and share a last name...but are not related.  Either way, Andre (18.8) and Austin (13.2) average nearly half of the Gophers 80 points per game so far.  Both are decent 3-point shooting threats (34% and 36% respectively) and aren't afraid to throw them up, averaging over 10 attempts per game from deep between them.

Interesting Stat:  Austin Hollins is averaging 7.8 rebounds per game, which is ridiculous for a 6'4" guard.  For comparison sake, the only player on Syracuse's entire roster averaging more than that is Jerami Grant, and just barely at that (8.0 rpg).

Verdict:  Going off the rankings at kenpom.com, which admittedly are going off a small sample size this early in the season, Minnesota should actually be a slight favorite over Syracuse (#20 vs #22).  However, I'm taking those rankings with a grain of salt.  We all know Syracuse can tend to play down to the level of the competition at times, so hopefully finally seeing a real opponent will spark the offense out of its early season slumber and lead us to victory.  In a close one, I'll take Cuse 79-75.

Second Round (winner of Cuse/Minnesota plays winner of California/Arkansas)

California Golden Bears  (4-0)

Best Win:  Oakland 64-60

At first glance, you might think Coppin State since they upset fellow Pac-12 member Oregon State right after losing to California.  But the always trusty kenpom.com says that's more of an indictment of Oregon State than a feather in Coppin State's cap.

Instead, we'll go with Oakland.  Yes, it was Cal's closest victory so far this season (64-60) and it was over a winless team.  But Oakland is not afraid of major conference programs, as witnessed by their brutal schedule so far this season (UNC, UCLA, Cal, Gonzaga).  It's not the best win in the world, but this early in the season most teams don't have one much better.

Best Player(s):  Richard Solomon and Jabari Bird

Syracuse fans will recognize quite a few faces in this match-up, as the Golden Bears return every key player from their 2nd round game against Syracuse last season except for Allen Crabbe, who left for the NBA Draft.


Richard Solomon was the star for Cal in that game, going for 22 and 14.  Apparently he is a double-double machine that doesn't just abuse Syracuse's big men, because he is averaging 11.0 ppg and 12.8 rpg for the season.  He should be a good test to see just how ready the three stooges in our frontcourt are for the rigors of conference play.

One player Cuse fans won't recognize is freshman Jabari Bird, who is actually Cal's leading scorer on the young season at 13.5 ppg.  He's also shooting 50% from deep, albeit on only 18 attempts.  Still, 50% is 50%.  It's not like he's only 1 for 2.

Interesting Stat: The Bears have 5 players averaging over 20 minutes per game, and of those 5 all but 1 is averaging double figures in points.  And that one player, David Kravish, is averaging 9.3, so he's not all that far off either.  Clearly this is a balanced team that can hurt you from multiple spots on the floor.

Verdict:  I like Cal to be victorious over their first round opponent.  They do have a travel advantage after all, coming from the West Coast.  I like Cuse to take them down 72-65 though if they do meet in the 2nd round.  After all, we all know travel advantage or no travel advantage, every game in November and December is a home game for Syracuse.

Arkansas Razorbacks (3-0)

Best Win:  vs. Southern Methodist 89-78

They're coached by a Hall of Famer (Larry Brown) and they are in the American Conference (aka the Big East's leftovers).  So they're a little bit better than the typical cupcakes most teams are playing this time of year.

Best Player(s):  Another familiar opponent for Syracuse fans, as last season the Orange when into Bud Walton Arena and took down the Razorbacks 91-82 on the backs of the unconscionably hot James Southerland and his 35 points on 9-13 shooting from 3.

Although the name on the front of the jersey might be familiar, the names on the back won't be.  The Razorbacks 3 best players so far this season (Alandise Harris - 18.3 ppg, Michael Qualls - 16.3 ppg, and Anthlon Bell - 12.3 ppg) only played 10 minutes combined in the game last season.

Interesting Stat:  Arkansas only has 1 player averaging 25+ minutes per game so far on the season.  I know it is early in the year, so the bench players tend to get some more run given the games can get out of hand and the coaches are trying to learn what they have to work with for conference play.  But for comparison sake, Syracuse (who also is trying to test out the new guys and goes at least 8 deep of legitimate rotation players) has 4 players averaging 25+ minutes per game.  In fact, Fair, Cooney, Grant, and Ennis are all averaging over 26 minutes per game.

I don't know this for a fact, but judging by the Razorbacks minutes per game stats, I'd like to imagine that when it comes time to throw the first subs in the game the Arkansas coach harkens back to 3rd grade rec ball and sends in a whole new five.  And the five who come off all get a pat on the back, some orange slices, and a juice box.

Verdict: The Razorbacks are young and turn the ball over quite a bit (tied for most in the field with 14 per game).  I don't see them getting past Cal, but if they do Syracuse should dispatch them fairly easily, 78-65.

Third Round (For the sake of saving a little time, I'm only going to preview the two teams Syracuse is most likely to face in the third round.  If they - or either of these teams - get upset in one of the first two rounds then I don't really give a hoot who Chaminade's best player is.  You can do your own research.  ESPN.com and Kenpom.com should get you everything you need to know.  This isn't rocket science.)

Gonzaga Bulldogs (4-0)

Best Win:  vs. Colorado State 93-61

Best Player(s):  The junior backcourt duo of Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell Jr.  These two guards are both lethal from deep (44% and 60% respectively, on nearly 15 combined attempts per game).  With David Stockton, yes that Stockton, more than capable of finding either player it makes for a very difficult backcourt to deal with.

Interesting Stat:  This team will play small and they can go.  They have 4 guards who average 19+ minutes per game and all four of them average 2.8 assists per game or more, so they are all equally capable of handling the basketball and distributing it to open teammates.  That helps to explain why they average 91 points per game.

Not so much of a stat, but just another interesting fact.  The Gonzaga team has a disappointing hair showing this season.  Check out this legacy from past teams...




And of course...

























This year?  The best you can find on their roster is this freshman canuck who rides the pine with his mullet.



Disappointing.

Verdict:  If this is the title game matchup, I'm afraid to say that this would be where I see the Maui Magic finally wearing off for Syracuse.  This team just has far too much depth, experience, and shooting in the backcourt for our inexperienced backcourt to successfully navigate.  I see a shoot-out, with Syracuse coming up just short 88-83.

Baylor Bears (4-0)

Best Win:  Colorado 72-60 (neutral court)

Best Player(s):  Tough to say.  There's 7'1" center Isaiah Austin, the rare seven-footer with skills who actually returned to school.  There's senior Brady Heslip who is shooting 51% from beyond the arc.  And there is big man Cory Jefferson who is nearly averaging a double-double.  What isn't hard to say, is that this team has all the key pieces to break down the zone.  Skilled big men aplenty and a sniper from deep.  On the other hand, they do this... so, yea.

Interesting Stat:  The Bears only force 4 steals per game, by far the fewest in the field.  For a team with only one true ball-handler, that's a welcome sight for the Orange.

Verdict:  Despite my point above that this team has all the makings to pick apart the zone, I still think Syracuse would manage to eek out a victory over them.  The combination of only 4 steals per game with 14 turnovers per game would allow Syracuse to build up a sizable disparity in fast break points and get the offense rolling.  If this is the title game matchup, give me Syracuse for the title 71-66.


Well there you have it.  As you can see from my predictions, I don't really see any gimmies for Syracuse this week, as this field is surprisingly deep for the lack of "marquee" team names.  History is on their side, and there is no team in this field they can't beat.  But they'll need to put together a little bit more consistency than they've exhibited so far on this young season to come out smelling like roses, or leis.  Either way, it should be fun to finally see them go toe-to-toe with some potential NCAA Tournament teams and start to get a feel for what this teams ceiling is this season.  Enjoy it, Jim Boeheim is planning to...