Maui Invitational Preview

Syracuse kicks off their first real test of the young season tonight at 5:30 EST with a first round battle in the Maui Invitational against Minnesota.  It'll be the first of 3 games in 3 nights and thankfully all will be televised on the ESPN TV family of networks, and not that red-headed stepchild ESPN3.  Let's take a sneak peek at what lies ahead for the Orange.

First Round

Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-0)

Best Win:  @ Richmond 74-59

Beating a top-100 team in a true road game this early in the season is legit.

Best Player(s):  Andre and Austin Hollins

Oddly enough, the Gophers two starting guards are both from Tennessee and share a last name...but are not related.  Either way, Andre (18.8) and Austin (13.2) average nearly half of the Gophers 80 points per game so far.  Both are decent 3-point shooting threats (34% and 36% respectively) and aren't afraid to throw them up, averaging over 10 attempts per game from deep between them.

Interesting Stat:  Austin Hollins is averaging 7.8 rebounds per game, which is ridiculous for a 6'4" guard.  For comparison sake, the only player on Syracuse's entire roster averaging more than that is Jerami Grant, and just barely at that (8.0 rpg).

Verdict:  Going off the rankings at kenpom.com, which admittedly are going off a small sample size this early in the season, Minnesota should actually be a slight favorite over Syracuse (#20 vs #22).  However, I'm taking those rankings with a grain of salt.  We all know Syracuse can tend to play down to the level of the competition at times, so hopefully finally seeing a real opponent will spark the offense out of its early season slumber and lead us to victory.  In a close one, I'll take Cuse 79-75.

Second Round (winner of Cuse/Minnesota plays winner of California/Arkansas)

California Golden Bears  (4-0)

Best Win:  Oakland 64-60

At first glance, you might think Coppin State since they upset fellow Pac-12 member Oregon State right after losing to California.  But the always trusty kenpom.com says that's more of an indictment of Oregon State than a feather in Coppin State's cap.

Instead, we'll go with Oakland.  Yes, it was Cal's closest victory so far this season (64-60) and it was over a winless team.  But Oakland is not afraid of major conference programs, as witnessed by their brutal schedule so far this season (UNC, UCLA, Cal, Gonzaga).  It's not the best win in the world, but this early in the season most teams don't have one much better.

Best Player(s):  Richard Solomon and Jabari Bird

Syracuse fans will recognize quite a few faces in this match-up, as the Golden Bears return every key player from their 2nd round game against Syracuse last season except for Allen Crabbe, who left for the NBA Draft.


Richard Solomon was the star for Cal in that game, going for 22 and 14.  Apparently he is a double-double machine that doesn't just abuse Syracuse's big men, because he is averaging 11.0 ppg and 12.8 rpg for the season.  He should be a good test to see just how ready the three stooges in our frontcourt are for the rigors of conference play.

One player Cuse fans won't recognize is freshman Jabari Bird, who is actually Cal's leading scorer on the young season at 13.5 ppg.  He's also shooting 50% from deep, albeit on only 18 attempts.  Still, 50% is 50%.  It's not like he's only 1 for 2.

Interesting Stat: The Bears have 5 players averaging over 20 minutes per game, and of those 5 all but 1 is averaging double figures in points.  And that one player, David Kravish, is averaging 9.3, so he's not all that far off either.  Clearly this is a balanced team that can hurt you from multiple spots on the floor.

Verdict:  I like Cal to be victorious over their first round opponent.  They do have a travel advantage after all, coming from the West Coast.  I like Cuse to take them down 72-65 though if they do meet in the 2nd round.  After all, we all know travel advantage or no travel advantage, every game in November and December is a home game for Syracuse.

Arkansas Razorbacks (3-0)

Best Win:  vs. Southern Methodist 89-78

They're coached by a Hall of Famer (Larry Brown) and they are in the American Conference (aka the Big East's leftovers).  So they're a little bit better than the typical cupcakes most teams are playing this time of year.

Best Player(s):  Another familiar opponent for Syracuse fans, as last season the Orange when into Bud Walton Arena and took down the Razorbacks 91-82 on the backs of the unconscionably hot James Southerland and his 35 points on 9-13 shooting from 3.

Although the name on the front of the jersey might be familiar, the names on the back won't be.  The Razorbacks 3 best players so far this season (Alandise Harris - 18.3 ppg, Michael Qualls - 16.3 ppg, and Anthlon Bell - 12.3 ppg) only played 10 minutes combined in the game last season.

Interesting Stat:  Arkansas only has 1 player averaging 25+ minutes per game so far on the season.  I know it is early in the year, so the bench players tend to get some more run given the games can get out of hand and the coaches are trying to learn what they have to work with for conference play.  But for comparison sake, Syracuse (who also is trying to test out the new guys and goes at least 8 deep of legitimate rotation players) has 4 players averaging 25+ minutes per game.  In fact, Fair, Cooney, Grant, and Ennis are all averaging over 26 minutes per game.

I don't know this for a fact, but judging by the Razorbacks minutes per game stats, I'd like to imagine that when it comes time to throw the first subs in the game the Arkansas coach harkens back to 3rd grade rec ball and sends in a whole new five.  And the five who come off all get a pat on the back, some orange slices, and a juice box.

Verdict: The Razorbacks are young and turn the ball over quite a bit (tied for most in the field with 14 per game).  I don't see them getting past Cal, but if they do Syracuse should dispatch them fairly easily, 78-65.

Third Round (For the sake of saving a little time, I'm only going to preview the two teams Syracuse is most likely to face in the third round.  If they - or either of these teams - get upset in one of the first two rounds then I don't really give a hoot who Chaminade's best player is.  You can do your own research.  ESPN.com and Kenpom.com should get you everything you need to know.  This isn't rocket science.)

Gonzaga Bulldogs (4-0)

Best Win:  vs. Colorado State 93-61

Best Player(s):  The junior backcourt duo of Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell Jr.  These two guards are both lethal from deep (44% and 60% respectively, on nearly 15 combined attempts per game).  With David Stockton, yes that Stockton, more than capable of finding either player it makes for a very difficult backcourt to deal with.

Interesting Stat:  This team will play small and they can go.  They have 4 guards who average 19+ minutes per game and all four of them average 2.8 assists per game or more, so they are all equally capable of handling the basketball and distributing it to open teammates.  That helps to explain why they average 91 points per game.

Not so much of a stat, but just another interesting fact.  The Gonzaga team has a disappointing hair showing this season.  Check out this legacy from past teams...




And of course...

























This year?  The best you can find on their roster is this freshman canuck who rides the pine with his mullet.



Disappointing.

Verdict:  If this is the title game matchup, I'm afraid to say that this would be where I see the Maui Magic finally wearing off for Syracuse.  This team just has far too much depth, experience, and shooting in the backcourt for our inexperienced backcourt to successfully navigate.  I see a shoot-out, with Syracuse coming up just short 88-83.

Baylor Bears (4-0)

Best Win:  Colorado 72-60 (neutral court)

Best Player(s):  Tough to say.  There's 7'1" center Isaiah Austin, the rare seven-footer with skills who actually returned to school.  There's senior Brady Heslip who is shooting 51% from beyond the arc.  And there is big man Cory Jefferson who is nearly averaging a double-double.  What isn't hard to say, is that this team has all the key pieces to break down the zone.  Skilled big men aplenty and a sniper from deep.  On the other hand, they do this... so, yea.

Interesting Stat:  The Bears only force 4 steals per game, by far the fewest in the field.  For a team with only one true ball-handler, that's a welcome sight for the Orange.

Verdict:  Despite my point above that this team has all the makings to pick apart the zone, I still think Syracuse would manage to eek out a victory over them.  The combination of only 4 steals per game with 14 turnovers per game would allow Syracuse to build up a sizable disparity in fast break points and get the offense rolling.  If this is the title game matchup, give me Syracuse for the title 71-66.


Well there you have it.  As you can see from my predictions, I don't really see any gimmies for Syracuse this week, as this field is surprisingly deep for the lack of "marquee" team names.  History is on their side, and there is no team in this field they can't beat.  But they'll need to put together a little bit more consistency than they've exhibited so far on this young season to come out smelling like roses, or leis.  Either way, it should be fun to finally see them go toe-to-toe with some potential NCAA Tournament teams and start to get a feel for what this teams ceiling is this season.  Enjoy it, Jim Boeheim is planning to...

The 2nd Annual Unnecessarily Long Preview Post

The Braves have been eliminated from the postseason.  The Bills have been eliminated from the playoff hunt (for all intents and purposes).  And I'm well on my way to another Top Chef Fantasy League victory over my wife.

You know what that means?

It's that time of year for the "Annual Unnecessarily Long Preseason Syracuse Preview Email Chain"

Syracuse is coming off a surprise Final Four run and Schirmer and I are coming off of predictions such as:

Schirmer (re: MCW):  "His contributions this year will be in the form of assists (good call) and 3-point shots (bad call)"

Jay:  "I'm taking Jerami Grant in the 'Which freshman will spend the season getting splinters while sitting next to Jimmy?' award:

With advice like that, who needs a dartboard?

So Steve, in attempt to save us from tucking our tails between our legs too much when we return to this post at the end of the season, let me serve up a Barry Zito sized meatball to get us started...

Is Jim Boeheim going to retire?

I will answer your question using a play on one of my favorite Boeheim old man, cranky quotes of all time:

“I have to laugh a little bit when our own paper, our own student newspaper, is saying that I’m going to retire. They actually listed a bunch of coaches who I guarantee would never be head coaches if they think they can waltz into my role. Without me, we wouldn’t have won 10 f***ing games. Not 10. And I’m going to retire? That’s the most bulls*** thing I’ve heard in 30 years.”

Ok Jim, I think we get your point. You’re not going anywhere. The question is what is it going to take for him to leave? Will he make a bet with DaJuan Coleman that if he averages less than 1.5 unnecessary power dribbles per game he’ll retire? Will Mike Hopkins drop poison on Boeheim’s fingertips to make it a one way trip when Jim goes off hunting for golden mucus nuggets mid-game? Or will three cash strapped and troubled men cry wolf, change their story countless times, hire an ambulance chaser and try to blackmail Jim into the sunset?

Wait, that already happened.

My guess: Jim Boeheim’s final game will be March 28^th, 2016 as Syracuse falls victim to a horrific goaltending call on Chinoso Obokoh, sending a reloaded Kentucky team to the Final Four and sending Nora on her first evening stroll with her father post a Sportocalypse.

The only reason why Jim is still around must be because he wants 1,000 wins. He’s currently at 920 and will need to average ~27 wins a year over the next 3 years. It’s high expectations given that the ACC is about to become the SEC of college basketball, but it’s doable. The 2013 and 2014 recruiting classes were stacked for Syracuse, and 2015 also looks promising. Besides Grant and Ennis, there’s no one else I can see making the jump early to the NBA. And last I checked, Georgia Tech, Boston College, Clemson, Virginia Tech and Wake Forrest still remain members of the ACC.

Once he passes 1,000 wins, that’s when Jim will finally stop telling reporters to get off his lawn.

Before we begin to wax poetic on this year’s team and make completely baseless and inaccurate proclamations on them (boy do I wish I could take back the Gospel According to Cooney), let’s reflect back on last year before it’s laid to rest.

What will ultimately define the 2012-2013 Syracuse Orange season for you? Did just reaching the Final Four satisfy you fully? Or did the events that transpired in Atlanta leave you wanting more (or better yet, wanting less of MCW turnovers and errant shots).

I will remember the 2012-13 season for a lot of reasons.  Let's break it down good, bad, and ugly style...

The Good:

-C.J. Fair's dunk over Otto Porter in the BET semifinals

-Getting the last laugh by beating Georgetown in the BET semifinals

-Michael Carter-Williams stat-stuffing lines during the non-conference season

-The comeback at Louisville and MCW's game-clinching steal / dunk sequence

-The emergence of Baye Moussa Keita

-The development of C.J. Fair's 3-point shot

-The utter dominance of the 2-3 Zone during the first 2 weekends of the NCAA Tournament

-And of course... reaching the Final Four for the first time since 2003-04

The Bad:

-The 2nd half of the BET Championship Game

-Michael Carter-Williams turnovers during conference play

-James Southerland's suspension

-The reffing in the last 5 minutes of the Final Four game (yes, I'm still bitter - even if we didn't deserve to win that game anyways)

The Ugly;

-Both Georgetown regular season games

-DaJuan Coleman's post game (and tattoos)

-Trevor Cooney's jump shot

Getting back to your original question though, all in all I was satisfied with the Final Four run.  Obviously you would love to win it all, but given the inconsistencies this team experienced throughout the season, this really was probably about as high as their ceiling went.  Better Syracuse teams than last years (see: 2009-10 and 2011-12) failed to reach the final weekend.  And to be perfectly honest, even the best programs in the country don't make the Final Four nearly as frequently as you would think (Kentucky, Duke, Kansas and Ohio State all have only been two times in the past decade).  

Now, on to this season.  I don't know if you've heard this Steve, or if you've been too busy watching game tape of Teddy Bridgewater and Jadaveon Clowney to take your mind off the Giants, but we're moving to the ACC this season.  

What are you expecting out of the transition?  Is the zone going to flummox teams like it did to Indiana in the Sweet 16?  Are the Rakeem / DaJuan / Baye rotation going to average a foul every 45 seconds with the less physical style of play? Will C.J. Fair make a Sherman-esque march through the league on the way to ACC Player of the Year?

What was that? Sorry I was too distracted by another pass bouncing off Hakeem Nicks’ hands.

Well like you just pointed to, the biggest impact Syracuse will have this year is how the conference will handle the Zone Defense. Now, I’ve been spending the better half of my life swimming in the Big East Pool. I know those teams in and out, their style of play, their favorite foods, what types of items they like to steal from students (sorry, that’s just you UConn), etc. So now that I feel like a kid who’s dad took another job and relocated 5 states away, I’m can’t say I’m up to snuff about our new ACC counterparts. So bear with me as I naively navigate through my overall impact on the conference like I’m the Caveman Lawyer.

Have you ever watched an ACC game start to finish and said “Wow. That was a high quality basketball game”? Not from a sheer excitement standpoint, but from a pure technical one? Every ACC game I seem to watch has countless defensive breakdowns, turnovers, and mediocre outside shooting at best. Athletic ability and wingspan seem to be the overwhelming strength of the conference.

So what will the zone do immediately? It’ll force the ACC to play real basketball. Each team is going to need to knock down jump shots. Methodically work the shot clock to get high quality shots. They’ll need skilled bigs who are able to find the soft spots to break down the defense. A 40 minute track meet I’ve played out hundreds of times on PS2’s “NBA Street” won’t get it done against the Orange.

Duke should be able to handle the zone well. Besides the fact that Coach K hired Boeheim for the Olympic team for his knowledge of the zone, Duke traditionally has the outside shooting and the skilled post players that can catch the ball at the elbow and pass out to the perimeter. Pittsburgh and Notre Dame, naturally, will be able to attack it from experience.

Other than that though, there isn’t a team I can look at and say I’m intimidated to face. Even UNC. UNC beats people simply by outscoring and outrunning everyone. They won’t be able to do that against Syracuse assuming they’re competent on offense that night. Florida St. and Virginia both play physical, grind it out styles that most closely mirror Big East play, but neither have transcendent talent on offense that gives me pause. And the rest of the ACC is comprised of the Depaul’s and Seton Hall’s of the world.

Syracuse will still be outrebounded. But what else is new. And Keita, Christmas, and a hopefully unnecessary power-dribble free Coleman should be able to foul their way to fill up 40 minutes. Statistically, this incarnation of the zone could be one of the best we’ve seen, just because 80% of teams won’t know what to do with it (despite our knowledge that the previous 4 years of defense are far superior than what we’re about to see).

As for C.J. Fair, it would be unfair for me to elaborate and tread on your turf. Talking fondly about C.J. to you is like hitting on your wife. Only you can properly wax poetic about his greatness, which can be seen here.

Let’s get into the nuts and bolts of the 2013-2014 squad. This season’s team has as many new faces on it as I can remember. Five Freshman (including the red shirted Obokoh), and the Benedict Arnold of Duke, Michael Gbinije. In past seasons, we’ve had impossibly high expectations for the recruits and new faces (I’m looking at you Fab Melo, DaJuan Coleman and Trevor Cooney). Will you temper your lofty aspirations for the new kids, or will you still to ride them hard like an overbearing, irrational Tennis Dad?

Tyler Ennis and crew are going to get off easy.  All my overbearing sport dad-ness now has to be reserved for Nora (I figure Kan Jam should be a professional sport by the time she turns 21 - that kid is going to break records), so I don't have any left for this year's freshman class.

In all seriousness though, I just don't have crazy high expectations for any of these new players this year.  I expect Tyler Ennis to have a great year, but from everything I can tell he will only get you super excited in a basketball nerd sort of way.  It seems like he is a very heady basketball player who makes his impact by controlling the flow of the game and getting everyone the ball in the right spots.  He's probably not going to make the spectacular plays MCW did (or threaten for triple-doubles), but he also isn't going to make the bone-headed passes that lead to fast breaks for the opposing team and shoot 5% from 3 (check me on that MCW shooting percentage - I didn't research so it might have been a point or two higher).

So while I personally am very excited for him, it's on a much lower scale.  My expectations are for him to blend in and be a key cog, not to blow anybody away and be an instant star.  Very useful, indeed, but not what you'd expect from top 10 big man of yore like Melo and Coleman.

As far as the rest of the class, Obokoh is red-shirting so he's a non entity this year.  Patterson and Johnson seem like they are plays for the long haul, not immediate impact this season.  And while Tyler Roberson certainly has the talent to make a splash this year, I just don't see the opportunity for playing time.  He's a big forward, which means he'd have to take minutes away from Fair, Grant, Christmas, Coleman, and Keita to get in the game.  Good luck with that buddy.

The wildcard is Michael Gbinje.  I'm probably a little lukewarm on him because he has the Duke stink on him.  He's going to need to have a big game or two in the Orange before I can truly forgive him for his sins.  But he does have the pedigree (was ranked right in the same area as Michael Carter-Williams in their high school graduating class) and the opportunity (our 2 guard spot is a barren wasteland of proven talent going into the season).  So he certainly has a chance to breakout.

So, no, my expectations for this freshman class are not unreasonably sky high.  Because I am saving the suffocating pressure of pleasing The Great White Forth for the Sophomore class.  That's right, they get another year of my unforgiving eye and unreasonably high expectations.  But with good reason.  If this Syracuse team is going to live up to expectations and compete for another Final Four run, it will be because of the growth of Trevor Cooney, DaJuan Coleman, and especially Jerami Grant.

What do you foresee for the three stooges this year?

Funny you mentioned The Three Stooges to describe our “Super” Sophomores. You know, one of Little Steve Schirmer’s favorite TV shows growing up was the Three Stooges. Between this and mandatory car trip listens to Oldies 98.9 FM, I think my parents were trying to raise a 1950’s era kid. Anyways, The Three Stooges is a perfect analogy for these guys.

Larry - Trevor Cooney. Larry was always the sweet, aloof one of the trio. A happy go-lucky fella who would often be the voice of reason while Moe tried to pluck out Curly’s eyes. But as good intention as Larry always had to help his counterparts, he’d end up breaking a table of glasses and be on the receiving end of both Curly and Moe’s abuse.

Trevor fits the billing here. While several attempts have been made to characterize Coon-Dog as a gang banging thug (check out @ThugCooney if you want a few laughs), temperament wise he appears more Andy Rautins than Eric Devendorf. And watching him on the court, you can tell that he works hard and means well. But for all his hard efforts, he always manages to shoot and errant air-ball or bounce the ball off his foot and be the collective punching bag of Syracuse fans.

From what I’ve seen and read, results have been inconsistent in the pre-season for our next Great White Hope. I recall not-so-fondly of Syracuse’ first exhibition in Canada seeing Cooney not being able to hit the broad side of a Maple Tree. Then at the recent Midnight Madness attended by 326 raucous fans, Cooney put up 24 points with 5 triples.

So which one will we get? Probably a little of both. Look, Cooney isn’t nearly as bad as he showed last year. You don’t become a 4 star recruit who’s one job is to shoot 3 pointers if he was a total bust. But we might be in for 5 months of Heat Check moments for Trevor. And it has to be telling that, allegedly, Michael Gbinije (playing out of position no-less) is the starting 2 guard over him. It’s not a warning to you. It’s to Nora who’s going to think her dad is a raving schizophrenic when watching Cooney this year.

Moe – Jerami Grant: Moe is surly, Moe is bossy, hell Moe can be a flat out dick. But Moe was the leader and the only reason why Larry didn’t burn down a building or why Curly didn’t choke on his own tongue. He clearly was the most able of the trio.

Of these three, Grant has by far the most talent and most potential to emerge as the next leader on the team. Filling in for Southerland during his suspension, Grant surpassed expectations by scoring double digits in 4 of 6 games. He also showed some great instincts on both the offensive and defensive glass, and we both know how much Syracuse is skewered in the media over its rebounding.

The reason why Jerami didn’t stick around once James Southerland came back? He just wasn’t assertive enough. He hadn’t developed a good enough jump shot yet to show confidence on the court, and to compound matters he shot only 47% from 2 point shots. However, one thing I noticed in the Canadian exhibitions games (particularly in C.J. Fair’s absence due to injury) was that he could step up and be the go-to guy on offense. Unafraid to take a jumper, he scored 15 of his game-high 18 points in the second half to stave off an embarrassing loss to Carleton. He also hit some clutch free throws to seal the deal (something he only converted on 52% of his attempts in 2012).

Jerami now steps into the premier 6^th man role that Syracuse has enjoyed over the past 4 years, and I expect him to excel and be one of Syracuse’s crunch time guys in ACC play.

Curly – DaJuan Coleman: We all know that Curly was the oversized clown of the three. He also was known for his Tourette like facial-ticks and found himself uncontrollably spinning around the floor while he screamed “woop woop woop woop woop”.

The comparisons to Jamesville-Dewitt’s favorite oversized son are easy to make here. First, he’s a big, big man. But as you know, Jay, we continually have poked fun at his seemingly inability to control himself from receiving the ball in the paint or grabbing a rebound, POWER DRIBBLING, and then throw the ball 90 MPH against the backboard. Plus, considering his size, why was he getting knocked to the ground so often?

The good news? It looks like he’s adopted the Fab Melo Sophomore Diet, cut out the Chipotle and lost the Freshman 30. Second, Coleman looked pretty dominant at times this preseason, including a 10-13, 26 point performance against Ottawa in the final game of the Canada tour. Best news, however, is DaJuan seemed to have gotten rid of the yips and showed the ability to perform put-back shots without stuffing the ball into his new “svelte” physique first.

But here’s what concerns me. DaJuan earned his 5 star recruit rating by pushing his 290 lb. frame through overmatched Central NY white kids. And by the looks of it, none of the Canadian teams looked to boast anyone more than 6’7, 210. So of course DaJuan is going to dominate against these types of players! It’s like if I played a game of pick-up against a bunch of 2^nd graders.

Call me skeptical that he’s going to be able to keep it up against D1 opponents, even if he’s in much better shape. Too many times I watched him play last year and just couldn’t help myself but think “if he wasn’t 6’9, 290 lbs., would he even get a sniff at a major college scholarship?”

Some guys can make a decent career in college just by being big. But Boeheim is the wrong coach to try and coast their way through a program.  And just like Curly, we could easily see Coleman get quickly yanked in favor of a less talented, more reliable Shemp (aka Baye Mousa Keita).

Seems like we’ve covered the meat and potatoes of the roster. Now, let’s play a quick game of over/under:

Over/Under: 19.5 PPG for C.J. Fair

Over/Under: 35.5% three point shooting for Trevor Cooney

Over/Under: 5 Ast/Game for Tyler Ennis

Over/Under: 12.5 PPG for Jerami Grant

Over/Under: 14 MPG combined for Ron Patterson, B.J. Johnson and Tyler Roberson in ACC play

Over/Under: 8 PPG for Michael Gbinije

Over/Under: 67% FT shooting for the team overall

Over/Under: 5.5 Rbd/Game for DaJuan Coleman

Over/Under: 1 player suspended for NCAA violations during 2013-2014 (bonus points for who)

Over/Under: 123 different ways you’ll position Nora to watch Syracuse games to strike up good luck for the team

Oh boy, you know me and my penchant for over/unders...

Over / Under 19.5  PPG for C.J. Fair - As much as it pains me to say this... under.  

The last player to average over 19.5 ppg for Syracuse was Hakim Warrick in 2004-05.  It's just not the way the Syracuse offense works.  Their leading scorer is typically somewhere in the 13 - 17 ppg range.  Again, I hate to look up stats against C.J., but he has only scored over 20 points in his career 9 times, with a high of 25.  Seems a little unrealistic to expect him to average 20 for a full season knowing that, even for a major homer like me. I expect C.J. to continue to improve on his 14.5 average from last season, but ultimately wind up somewhere in the 17-18 point range rather than 20.  Still nothing to turn your nose up at when its paired with 7-8 rebounds per game.

Over / Under 35.5% three-point shooting for Trevor Cooney - Over

2 out of 5 3 pointers?  Seems pretty reasonable for a player whose coaches and teammates continue to rave about his shooting in practice, despite his penchant for glass-shattering bricks and hideous airballs during live game action.

I'm still a little hesitant until we see some real consistency from Trevor in games that count.  But think back to how absurd we would've deemed this question last preseason.  This one should be a slam-dunk as long as he can avoid those 0 for 7 games that really drag down the average.

Over / Under 5 assists / game for Tyler Ennis - Over

He's going to play 35+ minutes a game as the primary ball-handler for a team that's going to average 70+ points per game, he could sleepwalk to 5 assists per game.

Over / Under 12.5 ppg for Jerami Grant - Over

Syracuse runs a balanced offense that pretty much always leads to at least 2 players averaging 12+ points per game.  C.J. Fair is the clear-cut option #1 this year, but Jerami Grant will be #1A.

I know it's only exhibition games, but I really like the aggressiveness in looking for his own shot that Jerami has shown so far this year on the Canadian tour and the other night against Holy Family.  And filling the 6th man role that Boeheim typically uses as a sparkplug when the team comes out lazy should only help his chances to fill the bucket a little more often.

Over / Under: 14 MPG combined for Ron Patterson, B.J. Johnson and Tyler Roberson in ACC play - I want to take the under so bad here, but I think I'm going to have to go over.

If the lack of sleep from being a first-time parent hasn't sapped my brain power too much, I believe that equates to just under 5 minutes a game per player.  As good as the ACC will be next year, there will still be games against Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and the likes.  If Cuse gets up big in some of those game, you might see all 3 of these guys log closer to 10 minutes in mop-up duty.  Get 3-4 of those games and their minutes will skew up pretty quickly.  

The other thing that makes me shy away from the under here is Ron Patterson's inclusion.  If the guards get in any foul trouble, we don't have much depth and Patterson may be forced into extended action.

Plus all three of these players are quicker and longer athletes (other than Patterson anyways) who may see some play if we ever need to deploy the full-court press to get back into a game.

So with all those factors, I begrudingly go over.  But your point is well taken.

Over / Under: 8 PPG for Michael Gbinije - Under

Boy oh boy, this one is tough.  On the one hand, 8 points is not a lot, especially for a potential starter on a team that likes to run when possible.  Plus you have to figure he will get more playing time in non-conference to get extra practice as the back-up point guard.

On the other hand, I think he is likely to lose out on the starting 2-guard spot to Trevor Cooney, and when he is in the game to spell Tyler Ennis as the point guard, he should really be looking to facilitate and not for his own shot.

Ultimately, I think he winds up being a stat stuffer, with not single stat that jumps off the page at you but contributions across the board.  Call it something like 7 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2-3 steals/blocks.

Over / Under: 67% FT shooting for the team overall - Over

The lions share of the free throws will probably be taken by Tyler Ennis, Michael Gbinje, Trevor Cooney, and C.J. Fair.  I expect all of them to shoot 75% or better.  Jerami Grant has supposedly worked really hard to improve his stroke in the offseason.  And none of the big men are an out-and-out disaster akin to Arinze Onuaku (or Shaquille O'Neal).  The one wildcard is DaJuan Coleman, who definitely does struggle from the line and has a penchant to get hacked underneath when he's not bulldozing over smaller defenders for an offensive foul.

Over / Under: 5.5 Rebounds / Game for DaJuan Coleman - Over

He averaged 4.0 rebounds per game last season in only 12 minutes.  It would stand to reason that if his minutes jump up to 20-25 per game, that he could find 2 extra rebounds somewhere.  Plus, supposedly he has spent another off-season getting in better shape and better prepared for the rigors of a college basketball season.  I'm still skeptical about his chances to become a legitimate threat in the low-post, but there is no denying his big body can clear out some space to grab some boards.  

Besides, those shots where he rockets the ball into the bottom of the rim at 100 miles per hour on a lay-up attempt but somehow manages to get the ball back count as rebounds too.

Over / Under:  1 player suspended for NCAA violations during the 2013-14 season - (A Very Hesitant) Under

And I'm knocking on wood the whole time I write that.  You would think we've had our share of bad luck and would be due for a few uneventful years with no injuries, suspensions, or bad press.  First it was AO going down in the Big East Tournament on a legitimate National Title Contender (in a year Duke ultimately ended up winning no less - double stomach punch).  Then the Bernie Fine scandal.  Then Fab Melo's double suspension on another team with legitimate title chances.  And then James Southerland last year.  

I want to think we're due for an extended quiet stretch, but at this point we've almost entered the infamous Tyson Zone (shout out Bill Simmons) where no news story about this team would surprise me.  

Ron Patterson and Rakeem Christmas are suspended for receiving extra benefits from the local salon owner?

The NCAA mistakenly takes Thug Trevor Cooney's twitter account for the real Trevor Cooney and suspends him for open endorsing of drug use and alcohol abuse?

Headbands have been deemed illegal performance enhancers and the team has to vacate all wins that C.J. Fair has played in?

When will the madness end Steve, when?

Over / Under:  123 different ways you'll position Nora to watch Syracuse game to strike up good luck for the team - Way Over

Per game?  Maybe under (maybe).  Over the course of the season, easy over.  Money in the bank.  Cash your ticket now.  If this team makes a deep NCAA Tournament run, put 3 more zeroes behind that number and I'm still taking the over.

Now, allow me to return the favor with a few player prop bets and a few true/falses to wrap this sucker up...

More Rebounds Per Game?  C.J. Fair / Jerami Grant vs Christmas / Coleman / Keita

Total 3-pointers Made?  Cooney vs. The Field

More Minutes Per Game?  Christmas vs. Coleman vs. Keita

More Minutes Per Game? Cooney vs. Gbinje

More Points Per Game?  Fair vs. Grant

C.J. Fair makes 2nd team All-American or better? True/False

Any Syracuse player other than C.J. Fair makes a season-ending All Conference Team? True/False

Syracuse enters ACC play undefeated? True/False

Syracuse wins either the ACC regular season title OR the ACC Tournament? True/False

Syracuse makes the Elite Eight or better?  True/False

And just for fun, any final predictions you'd like to put on the board?

Most Rebounds Per Game – Fair/Grant or Christmas/Keita/Coleman

I’m going to go against the odds and say Fair/Grant lead in rebounds over Christmas/Keita/Coleman. The zones seems to breed long rebounds off of missed 3’s. And if someone does get into the interior, Christmas typically goes for the block, Keita looks to take a charge, and Coleman stands there wondering if Jimmy John’s is going to be open late after the game. Plus, you know that I’m not optimistic about Boeheim committing to Coleman at all, and he might be the best rebounder of the three. So taking this into account, and that Fair and Grant is almost guaranteed to be on the court 30-35 minutes a game, I’ll say they end up combining for the most rebounds.

Total 3-Pointers Made: Cooney vs. Field

The field. Easily. I was actually really surprised you were nearly non-hesitant to take over 35.5% shooting from deep for Cooney. Care me to give you an ugly stat? You may want to make sure you haven’t ate anything within the last half hour.

·         In non-conference play last season, Cooney went 16-50 from 3 point land. Not a great 32%, but not a disaster considering this was his first meaningful basketball in nearly 2 years. He needed time to get his legs under him.

·         In conference play and post season play, Cooney went an appalling 12-55, or 22% from deep. Ugh! He’s like a white Monta Ellis!

Now, I know you’re saying “No $hit Schirmer. It’s conference play. Everybody’s numbers come down”. Ok. Fair enough. But I’m a believer in that 3 point shooting has more to do with the shooter than the defense being a cause and effect. And from my recollection, most of his shots certainly were not heavily contested as MCW and Fair drew all the defensive attention.

Will he improve? Like I said before, absolutely. He HAS to from on those ugly stats above. But he’s going to be HEAVILY streaky. For every 5-7 game from deep, I think we get just as many 1-8 clunkers.

To put a nice bow on my far too long-winded answer, C.J. Fair hit 4 more 3-pointers than Cooney on 41 less shots. Grant managed to shoot 40% from 3 last year, and while his % will go down based on volume, he’ll put up some decent totals. Ennis showed a decent stroke from 3 in Canada, and Gbinije can shoot it as well. Throw in a lot of garbage time 3’s from B.J. Johnson and Ron Patterson in the non-conference schedule and I’ll take the FIELD in a Hakeem Warrick slam dunk.

More Minutes/Game: Christmas v. Coleman v. Keita

I’ve covered at length how I’m not believing in Coleman, so I’ll save everyone a paragraph by eliminating him from contention.

My heart wants Christmas to get more minutes/game. He has so much more raw talent than Keita. He’s the better shot blocker, better defensive rebounder, has a much better hair-cut, etc. But he just makes so many knuckle headed decisions on the offensive end of the court, whether it’s a terrible turnover or just finding himself wildly out of position on plays.

So that leaves myself saying this to Keita every game:

I JUST CAN’T QUIT YOU!!!!!!

He’s overall the more reliable, efficient and stable 5 that Boeheim has in his arsenal. And that’s what’s most important to him in his rotation. He’s not spectacular, but he’s going to do the dirty work and get the job done. That’s why more often than not Keita will be getting the crunch-time second half minutes than Christmas.

More Minutes/Game: Cooney v. Gbinije

Do I have a choice here? Fine. Give me Gbinije. I think Ennis is going to be a stud, so the reported expectations that they want him to play 30-38 minutes a night would be fine with me. They also need to replace MCW’s length at the top of the zone. Give me the 6’7 Gbinije while Cooney shoots his way next to Mike Hopkins a bunch of times this year.

Yuck. Let’s just move on.

More Points/Game: Fair v. Grant

I share nearly as much admiration for C.J. Fair as you do. Allow me to share some gushing stats on your boyfriend:

1.1 points per possession. 54% True Shooting Percentage (which adds emphasis to 3 point shooting and FT %). 1.8 Fouls Committed/40 minutes. 76% FTA. 47% on 2-point FG Attempts (could improve here), but 47% on 3-point shooting (yummy).

Now that the secret’s out that C.J. Fair is pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty, good, there will be much more attention on him defensively. But there’s no denying that C.J. Fair is an offensive efficiency machine. He gets his points from the Arc, the Stripe, and can get into the lane. What am I missing that I haven’t seen him on not one NBA mock draft including him in the first round.

Do I love Jerami Grant? Absolutely. But to expect relatively little usage in his Freshman year to suddenly become the leading scorer is too high of expectations. C.J. Fair is your scoring leader.

C.J. Fair makes at least 2^nd Team All-American: True/False?

TRUE. Here’s the list of names I see over and over ahead of C.J. Fair on pre-season All-American Lists:

Marcus Smart, Russ Smith, Andrew Wiggins, Doug McDermott, Julius Randle, Jabari Parker, Aaron Craft, Gary Harris, Aaron Gordon, Mitch McGary, Andrew Harrison, Jahii Carson, Rodney Hood, Adreian Payne, Willie Cauley-Stein.

I see Russ Smith, Doug McDermott, and Aaron Craft being shoe-ins to land a list based on pedigrees. Mitch McGary and Gary Harris will probably land on the lists too based on their expected production.

Other than that, though, I see a lot of “hype players” instead of “basketball players”. Marcus Smart is a Top 5 NBA pick, but he also was personally responsible for tanking a few OK St. games last year. At least 2 of the Freshman listed above will have one of those “Harrison Barnes” like disappointing seasons. We were joking that John Callipari was paying Willie Cauley-Stein not to play for Kentucky, but to leave. And I understand that while basketball nerds love Jahii Carson, that doesn’t change the fact he plays for the wrong Arizona school.

So how could a 17 PPG, 7.5 RBG and 40% 3-point shooter NOT make either 1^st or 2^nd team All-American Team playing in the ACC? Talent will prevail on this one. Irrational AP Voter Ron Morris, hopefully, will not.

A Syracuse Player Makes a season-ending All-Conference Team: True/False?

TRUE. The power conferences gives out as many season-ending awards as a Little League Tee-Ball organization. With 4 “teams”, even Coleman could power-dribble his way towards a spot. Jerami Grant should be good enough to land at least on the 4^th Team All-Conference list should he average something like the 13/6 like I think he could.

Wild Card: Tyler Ennis. It probably could be too aggressive to expect Ennis to make at least the 4^th team, but if he proves out to be at 30-40 minute guy it’s certainly doable.

Syracuse Enters ACC Play Undefeated: True/False?

A reluctant false...but it’s a tough schedule for a team that has 6 new guys. Assuming the Maui Games are chalk, that would be 6 games against the Top 50 of Kenpom’s Preseason Rankings.

Put that in your pipe and smoke it Doug Gottlieb.

Between foul trouble, inexperience or a cold-shooting night, one of those games will probably trip up Syracuse before ACC play.

Syracuse Wins either ACC Regular Season Title OR ACC Tournament Championship?

I’m going to go with TRUE here. I don’t think they’ll win the ACC Regular Season title, as I think Duke talented enough that they’ll win outright. But the ACC Tournament over the past 5 years is a pretty unpredictable one, and over a 3-4 day consecutive stretch Syracuse will have an advantage throwing a foreign defense at a team with almost no prep time. Chalk it up that Syracuse wins the ACC Conference Tournament in its inaugural year, and locks up a #2 Seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Syracuse Advances to the Elite 8 or Better: True/False

God I hope I’m wrong...False.

“BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!”

Hey, if you’re going to throw tomatoes at me, at least make sure they’re not frozen!

I’ll say this first, however. Teams who have repeat visits to the Final Four in consecutive years are more common than you think. Here’s the list:

Florida: 2006, 2007 (back to back National Championships)

UCLA: 2006, 2007, 2008 (National Championship Runner Up, Lost in Final 4, Lost in Final 4)

UNC: 2008, 2009 (Lost in Final 4, National Champion)

Michigan St: 2009, 2010 (National Championship Runner Up, lost in Final 4)

Butler: 2010, 2011 (2 time National Championship Runner Up)

Kentucky: 2011, 2012 (Lost in Final 4, National Championship)

Louisville: 2012, 2013 (Lost in Final 4, National Championship)

Now a 2^nd grader would look at this and say “hey, the last two years the loser of the Final Four ended up winning the National Championship the next year, so Syracuse has a 50% chance of winning the title!”

The difference, however, is that those teams listed (except for Kentucky) didn’t turn over nearly half of their roster from the year before.

I believe that if Syracuse plays it’s best basketball, they can go on another deep March Run like they did last year.  I think Ennis can step right in and be a solid PG from day one. I believe CJ Fair is capable of averaging 20 PPG. And I think Jerami Grant is about to become a star and a lottery pick.

I just worry about where the scoring is going to come from should Fair/Grant have an off night. And it will happen at some point in March.

Can Cooney get hot and pick up the slack from the outside? Can Gbinije have a performance that makes me reminisce to Josh Pace in 2003? Can Coleman provide for SOMETHING on the block that’s been absent since 2009, instead of attempting the break the sound barrier like he usually does?

Unless the season careens off a cliff, Syracuse should be able to land in Buffalo for its Opening Round games. But I think the ride ends in Memphis in the Sweet 16. I think not having a consistent 3^rd banana on offense like Triche, Southerland, Jardine, and Onuaku gave us recently will come back to haunt them. They’ll run into a hot shooting team that takes them out on their off night. Both you and I will go on our respective long walks. Goodnight and Good Luck.

Then again...if they could somehow finagle their way into the East Bracket, then the Regionals play out here...

HOME GAME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Let’s wrap this up with a final word from you, Jay Schwartz. What’s Syracuse’s overall regular season record, will they take down the ACC Tournament and how far do you see them going in March Madness?

Hmmmm... We Syracuse fans have gotten a little spoiled the last few years with very minimal losses.  But given the tougher schedule this year, I'm guessing we might have to learn how to deal with that feeling a little more this year.  I'll go with 22-9.  On the plus side, more losses means more irate Jim Boeheim post-game press conferences.

As for post-season play, I'll pencil us in as ACC Tournament runners-up and an Elite Eight loss in the NCAA Tournament.  

So there you have it folks.  9 emails back and forth, multiple weeks, and far too many words wasted on predictions that will soon be (and some that already have been) proven wrong.  Sorry, no refunds though.  You did this to yourself.