Saturday, January 4, 2014

Mid-Season Reset

It's a new season, with conference play kicking off today and this being my first post of 2014.  What better way to ring in the New Year than with an extensively over-the-top, far too many words, "would you guys get a life", in-depth, mid-season recap with my best Syracuse cohort, Steve Schirmer.  Steve, take it away...

Schirmer:  So wait, you're giving me another opportunity to proclaim completely baseless and outlandish things like comparing Trevor Cooney to Larry Fine and Monta Ellis, and saying that my love for Baye Mousa Keita is like that of Brokeback Mountain?

While I did make some pretty good points in that first attempt, my lawyers are currently working night and day figuring out how that 3,000 word hack job of Trevor Cooney's character and talent avoids becoming a financially destructive libel suit. And against the judge presiding over the case's wish that I abide by the court mandated gag order, I'll risk it all to answer the questions you've posed to me.

Best Game, Team and Player:

Schirmer:  I'll combine the two, as I feel both are from one game. This was a tough one, though. For one, I haven't been able to watch as much of the games as I normally would thus far (50% my fault, 50% not, and more on that in a minute). So I'm going to have to rely mostly on the box scores for this. And second, the jovial and irrationally excited fan in me just wants to immediately blurt out the Syracuse/Villanova game not only because we both were in attendance for it, but because nothing makes a beer buzz or dome dog go down better than a 71-37 run to end the game.

But then I remember those first 10 minutes. And how happy each of our Villanova loving, Benedict Arnold type relatives were during it. And that brings me back down to earth.

For me, this comes down to the quality of the opponent, the ability for Syracuse to execute their will over them in all facets, and then the "intangibles".

So the best game as a team they've played has to be their victory over Indiana.

Why you ask? For one, Indiana is no slouch. Yes they lost most of the squad that earned a #1 seed last year. But it's still a team projected to compete in the top half of a tough Big 10 conference and is extremely well coached.

Second, Syracuse executed it's game plan to a T. You couldn't ask for anything more. They forced Indiana into ill-advised 3 pointers at a low rate. Indiana shot 4-14 from 3, with ~36% of their total FG's coming beyond the arc. For the season, Indiana only averages 28% of it's shot from deep. Throw in 16 turnovers and 7 blocks and that's about as dominating performance against a quality opponent that Syracuse can muster.

On offense, Trevor Cooney led the way, including 5-9 from deep and 4-5 from the line. But Tyler Ennis probably put up his best box score of the year for a Syracuse player: 17 points on 6-8 shooting, 8 assists, 7 rebounds, 4 steals, and only 1 turnover. For all you KenPom fans, that's a 157 offensive efficiency rating. That was enough to make up for a rather lackluster night from C.J. Fair (if you call 15 points sub-par).

Plus, this very easily could have been a let down game. Coming off a trip to Maui and Thanksgiving to boot, Syracuse could had mailed it in. Instead, besides a brief 4 minute stretch where Indiana caught fire, this game was never in doubt. To me, that's the game I look at where Syracuse played it's best ball for 40 minutes, as well as the best individual performance of the year thus far.

Bonus: Worst game - the fact that Syracuse trailed by 6 at halftime against a still winless Cornell squad it's opening night. Let's just chalk it up to that you still hadn't figured out where Nora needed to be in the living room during the game. Nice fatherly halftime adjustment.

Schwartz:  I waited to get Nora and myself in the proper seating placements until the second half in order to spare best man Steve DeNero from a soul crushing 30 point rout.  He'll always have that first half.

As far as the best game / performance, I'll take the same tact as you and combine my player and team category into one singular performance.  However, unlike you I am just going to blurt out Villanova / Syracuse.  This game had it all.

A huge Syracuse run where they looked like they very easily could be the best team in the country?  Check.  Check x 2 in fact.  Which one do you want to discuss?  The 20-0 run that coincided with me tearing off my hoodie in frustration and allowing the #5 jersey to work its magic unimpeded?  Or the 71-37 run to close the game that you mentioned?  Both were pretty damn impressive when you consider how good Villanova has proven to be so far this season

History with the opponent?  Considering both of us have attended probably a half or dozen or so of these Nova games over the last couple years and know just how many families in this area have Villanova connections, I don't think I need to tell you how big this rivalry is.

Two top-ranked undefeated squads squaring off in an attempt to keep their records unblemished?  Check.  I think I speak for every Syracuse fan in the dome last Saturday in saying that I reallllllyyyy didn't want to take our first loss on the season to Nova.  Doubly so considering it was the first match-up in the post Big East era and we would've had to listen to Pat Lynch lecture us endlessly about we deserved this loss for breaking up the league.

Great individual performanes?  Check.  Fair, despite looking out of sorts for much of the afternoon, still managed to put up 17 and 6.  Cooney hit 5 three's (again).  Keita made a spectacular pass from the top of the key that had me giggling and shrieking like only my daughter should.

And Tyler Ennis.  Oh Tyler Ennis.  20 points.  0 turnovers.  In a game where Syracuse fell in a deep hole early and was rotating defender after defender on Ennis to try and fluster him, you wouldn't blame him if he started to press and made things worse with bad shot or turnovers.  Instead he did the exact opposite.  He masterfully orchestrated the offense and if it weren't for a few unfriendly rolls on some layups, he could have easily had 25+ points.  The assist totals may not have shown up in the box score, but watching that game in person, he controlled everything and was by far the best player on the court that entire afternoon.  

MVP:

Schirmer:  C.J. Fair is the obvious choice given that he's the leading scorer and go-to guy. But Syracuse isn't the #2 team in the country right now if they received the typical Freshman PG performance most people expected.

Tyler Ennis hasn't just provided stability at the PG position. He's a weapon. He's assisted on 30% of Syracuse's total made shots. Sure, it dwarf's in comparison to MCW's ridiculous 40% clip, but when all those assists are countered with all those turnovers (which, by the way, Ennis rarely does), it's not as special.

Ennis has also done a great job getting to the basket off the dribble, something I did not expect from him. That was a concern of mine heading into the year, as there wasn't someone like MCW or Waiters that could drive the lane and make plays. Ennis has that ridiculous cross over dribble, yet plays with such control getting to the basket. It's just so much fun to watch.

You and I were probably higher on him then most were heading into the season. But there's no chance in hell I expected a kid with this much composure and poise running the offense. And I don't think we're in control of a #1 seed without him. That's why he's my MVP of this young season.

Schwartz:  I'll still go with C.J. Fair, but let's just say that if you told me you wanted to go with Ennis or Cooney I wouldn't scoff at you the way Boeheim scoffs at a reporter's question or a friends suggestion to dine at Denny's.  It just goes to show you how incredible Ennis has been running this team and how scorching hot Cooney has been from deep, that I had to talk myself into this pick being reasonable and not me being blinded by my love for #5.

But it's not just my cult-like adoration of our smooth lefty that leads me to this decision.  There is one undeniable fact that makes C.J. Fair our MVP.  Ennis and Cooney may get us there, but C.J. always takes us home.  Check out these facts from a few of our closest wins so far this season:

Minnesota - Cuse up 63-59 with 6:08 left.  Amid a major scoring drought for both teams, C.J. Fair hits two jumpers during a stretch when the Orange was able to hold their lead (69-65) while draining the clock down to under a minute.  Andohbytheway, he was doing all of this with a huge gash under his eye from a blatant punch inadvertent slap to the face by a Gopher defender in the first half

Baylor - Cuse up 66-60 with 3:09 left.  C.J. Fair hits jumpers on the next two possessions to stretch the lead to 70-62 and put the Maui Title (and his MVP award) away.

St. Johns - After blowing a big lead, Syracuse was barely hanging on (up 62-60 with 3:14 left), when Fair calmly hit two mid-range jumpers to stretch the lead to 66-61 with under a minute to go.

The simple fact is this...Syracuse knows where its bread is buttered.  Fair may not dominate the ball the whole game the way some other National Player of the Year candidates do, but when the game is on the line he wants the ball and he gets it.  And what he does with it in those circumstances is why we are still undefeated right now.  Isn't that what being a MVP is really all about?

Biggest Surprise:

Schirmer:  It's Trevor Cooney and it's not even close. You and your readers know how down (or rather, glass half-empty) I was on him in the preseason. But allow me to eat some massive crow.

I expected a hot and cold season from Cooney, mixing in his 5-7 nights from deep just as many times as a 1-8 clunker.

But right now, he's shooting a cool 50% from 3. And showing no signs of letting up. Besides the fact that he's coached by the man, the myth, Gerry McNamara. But the way he catches the ball off a screen and shoots so quickly, he looks like Gerry.

You know who the last Syracuse player I could find who hit 50% from three was in a season?

...

You give up yet?

It's Hakeem Warrick! Shooting 1-2 from deep his Freshman Year!

Obviously, this is a stretch and yes, I still don't think he keeps this up. But there's been a lot of prolific 3 point shooters that have played in the Dome the last decade: Gerry, Andy Rautins, Wes Johnson, Demetris Nichols, hell I'll even throw in Eric Devendorf. None of them were shooting at as good of a clip as Cooney is. He's keeping the defense honest which has opened things up for C.J., Ennis and Grant inside the arc.

Honerable mention: Did you know that Rakeem Christmas is shooting 78% for the season? Yeah, me neither.

Schwartz:  I was going to go with the fact that Gerry McNamara and Trevor Cooney were able to replicate the rare successful body swap, usually only seen in mediocre tween comedy movies.  But since you've already covered that above, I'll go another route.  

Trevor Cooney has been a terrific surprise, no doubt.  But I've gotta go with Tyler Ennis as the biggest surprise.  As you mentioned earlier, we were both pretty high on him coming into the season, but he has surpassed even our wildest expectations.  And most people were probably far lower on him coming into the year.

Here's two case studies for you to show just how far Ennis and the perception of him has come in a mere 13 games.

Luke Winn had an interesting chart here comparing Ennis favorably with his predecessor, Michael Carter-Williams.  To say at the beginning of the season that you could lose a lottery pick and potential Rookie of the Year at point guard and replace him with a freshman and not only not skip a beat, but actually get better at that position would have been outrageous.  And accurate apparently.

There also was a clear line at the beginning of the season for the top freshmen.  Jabari Parker, Julius Randle, and Andrew Wiggins in some order, then a small gap and Aaron Gordon, and then a huge Grand Canyon sized gap and everyone else.  Tyler Ennis has not only forced his name to be included with those other 4 elite freshmen, but has actually passed a few of them in terms of perception already.  Just check here if you don't believe me.

Even as high as I thought I was on Ennis coming into the year, I would've looked at you like you had 17 eyes and had just gone Mike Tyson on my ear if you told me he would be this good, this quick.  But boy am I glad to be "wrong" on that one.

Biggest Disappointment:

Schirmer:  The complete lack of TV coverage for Syracuse. I'm serious. The one downside of this move to the ACC is that Syracuse's nonconference schedule was mostly banished to ESPN3. You know me for handing out lineup boner awards in our fantasy football league. Well allow me to hand out a massive one to the good folks of TWSN, for making a TV contract with the Big East and NOT Syracuse University. Nice work. 

Now, I know I'm completely having first world problems. But dammit, it just isn't as delightful watching them on my iPad instead of 1080HD!

Yeesh. Even Little Steve Schirmer is disgusted by that comment.

This better not be the norm for conference play. I don't care if Syracuse is up 30 on Virginia Tech. No more of this streaming buffering bullshit.

Schwartz:  Allow me to take the slam dunk here, and say our frontcourt.  They certainly won't take it.

Thank you, Thank you. I'll be here all season.

Seriously though, our frontcourt has been equally as disappointing as our backcourt has been impressive.  And let me be clear that when I say our frontcourt, I mean our centers.  C.J. Fair and Jerami Grant, you may excuse yourselves from this conversation.

The really frustrating part is that both Rakeem Christmas and DaJuan Coleman continue to show glimpses of their potential and dangle the carrot in front of you that they will eventually become what we so badly want them to become.  And if they ever did, they would complete our offense as fully loaded and dangerous in the process.  But then, inevitably, they put up a 0 point, 2 rebound, 4 foul performance the next night out.

It is beyond frustrating.  I feel like I write this in nearly every blog post, but I will continue to hope for the best and expect the worst.

Biggest Storyline Going Forward:

Schirmer:  Can Syracuse keep it up to land themselves in the New York City Regional? They control their own destiny in that respect. If they win the ACC over Duke, they almost assuredly will land there even if Duke also lands a top seed. And the possibility for playing, potentially, 4 "home" games in the NCAA tournament is just too good to be true.

That is until the NCAA committee decides to counter this "home court" advantage by stacking their regional with old Big East foes like Villanova, Georgetown, Louisville and UConn. I don't think I'd survive March if that happens.

Schwartz:  How good is this offense?  According to kenpom this morning, we are the number 2 offense in the country.  As recently as last weekend, we were ranked #1.  We have a lethal 3-point threat (Cooney), we have two rangy forwards who can get to the hoop and finish (Fair and Grant), and a point guard that can penetrate to score himself or set others up (Ennis).  The only thing we are really missing is a dominant low-post threat (see above).  And we've done all this against pretty legit competition, as I've covered extensively in this space.  So the easy answer is yes, they are very good.

But we also have very recent memories of Cuse offenses bogging down in conference play and becoming very stagnant and frustrating.  I know that was in the Big East, which is know for slow tempo and physical play.  But I was shocked to find out that the ACC this season could potentially be equally as difficult a challenge.  Clemson, Florida State, and Virginia are all top 8 defenses.  Pitt and UNC also fall in the top 20.

As good as the schedule has been so far this season, most of the teams we've played have been more proficient on offense than defense.  The best defense we played was Indiana (#25).  Next best?  St. Francis (#37) and we all know the scare they gave us.

I think we'll be just fine (no Georgetown redux), but it bears keeping an eye on.

Prop Bets (see: "Side Bets"):

C.J. Fair as ACC Player of the Year: 

Schirmer:  10%. He might not be player of the year on his own team. And as long as the media continues to eat up Jabari Parker, I think his chances of POY are dwindling.

Schwartz:  25%.  I'm probably wearing my rose-colored glasses a little here, but at the end of the day the C.J. Fair has done nothing to this point to eliminate him from discussions and today forward is really what counts for the lions share of the evaluation.  He's going to get two head-to-head match-ups with Parker, and if he is the best player in those two games, that will make up a lot of ground in a hurry.

Schwartz:

Tyler Ennis as ACC Freshman of the Year:

Schirmer:  50%. Maybe it's a situation like in the NFL where the Offensive POY can't be the NFL MVP. So maybe Jabari Parker will get POY and Tyler Ennis will get ACC Freshman of the Year.

Maybe? Please? I can't stand a Duke player sweeping both categories.

Schwartz:  35%.  Put him in any other conference in the country this season (maybe with the exception of the SEC), and Ennis is probably the clear-cut favorite at the mid point of the season.  Unfortunately for him, he is playing in the ACC, where the potential National Player of the Year also so happens to be a freshman.  It's a testament to the season he's having right now that we can even realistically give him odds this high.

Schwartz:

Trevor Cooney makes 100 3's on the Year: 

Schirmer:  43%. I'm going to assume this only covers the remainder of the regular season. He's at 43 right now, so he's 57 away.

I think he'll start to slow down once the Conference season starts. He'll inevitably put up some clunkers playing on the road that'll drag his average down. And appropriately enough, I'll even set his odds as what I think his 3 point shooting % ends up at the end the year.

Schwartz:  50%.  I'll go with 50%, as in "if he keeps shooting 50% for the entire season, there is a 100% chance he does this".  57 three's with 18 games to go equates to 3.167 per game.  He is averaging 6.6 per game right now, so he even has a liiiiittle bit of room to cool off.  He has already proven that he's going to have a few more big games (4-5+ three pointers made), so that helps.  The key will be not having off nights with no made three's.  If he can make at least 1 or 2 each game, then the big games will propel him over the top.

#1 rank at some point this season: 

Schirmer:  60%: Ohio St. isn't going to leap frog over Syracuse unless they lose, so it's a matter on if Arizona goes down before Syracuse.

It's going to come down to the week of January 6th on if Syracuse will get voted as #1. Arizona has back to back road games against UCLA and USC, while Syracuse gets UNC in the dome. If Syracuse survives and Arizona drops one of them, then we're looking at the 3rd time in the last 5 years Cuse has been #1 at some point of their season. Not too shabby.

Schwartz:  75%.  Yes, there is the scenario you lay out above.  But allow me to lay out another scenario to you.  The 3 teams behind Syracuse right now all reside in the same conference, the Big Ten.  If they takes turns knocking each other off, it is conceivable that Syracuse could lose a close one to either UNC or Pitt in the Dome and remain in the top 2 or 3.  A convincing win over Duke in the Dome would buy them some more goodwill, and another 2 weeks until their next tough game, to lay in wait for Arizona to stumble and allow us to slide into #1.  

#1 seed in the East Regional:

Schirmer:  65%. I think the only way they don't get placed in MSG it is if they don't get a #1 seed. Which, when you look at their performance so far and the prospects of facing a much weaker ACC conference slate, how can you not expect as much. Get a #1 seed, and it's a lock they play in the Garden.

Schwartz: 50%.  I agree with you, that if they get a #1 seed then they get to play in the Garden.  The problem is the same can be said about Duke.  I know Duke has taken a few losses already, but considering they were to Arizona (#1) and Kansas (#5), I don't think the committee will look down on those too much if they are able to knock of Syracuse.  So really, MSG comes down to 2 games on February 1st and February 22nd.  Circle your calendars and get ready to spew some venom.

Final Four:

Schirmer:  51%. I am feeling very, very good about this team. As good as I felt about the 2010 team before Onuaku went down.

Why am I more optimistic this year than most years? That Villanova game showed me they can overcome severe adversity and still come out on top. Coming back from an 18 point deficit and going on to win by double digits is no joke. They will be in that type of situation at some point before San Antonio. The fact they already showed they can persevere through it is very promising for their future outlook.

I really, really like their chances at getting to the Final 4 for the second straight year. C.J. Fair is going to continue to be so solid for Syracuse, so I'm not worried at all about him. If Ennis can continue to play like a redshirt junior instead of a Freshman, if Cooney can continue to open up the offense through prolific shooting, if Grant can check his ego and play for the team rather than Chad Ford, and if Christmas and Keita continue to provide solid rebounding and rim protection, I can't see a reason why this team could fall short of expectations.

What should we do until then? Be respectful to others, don't brag about the team, and continue to take the pot shots lobbed by the likes of Doug Gottlieb in stride. Maybe then the College Basketball gods will favor us and not bestow a crippling injury/suspension/scandal on the team to ruin the season. We can only hope.

Schwartz:  65%.  I also feel very good about our chances this season, especially with the way the road could lay out in Buffalo and New York.  But it just goes to show you how much of a crap shoot the NCAA Tournament is that this is the highest I can go even with the confidence I have in this team and the fact that they could essentially be playing 4 de facto home games to reach the Final Four.

But first things first, our inaugural campaign in the ACC starts today and I really, really, reallllly want to knock off Duke (and company) and show the league they've got a new power to worry about every season.

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