Nova vs Syracuse

Well, here we are.  December 28th and the long-awaited clash between two undefeated, top ten juggernauts has finally arrived.  Just as we always expecte...bwahahahahaha.

Sorry, I couldn't get that sentence out with a straight face.  I tried my best.

Let's face it.  Even the most ardent, die-hard, homer of a fan couldn't have expected either of these teams to be in this spot when the season started.  All I have to do is look in the mirror to tell you that one (Of course, that would be tough to do with Jay Wright standing in my way).  With the opponents that each team had on their schedule and the preseason expectations for both, it probably would have been just as realistic to guess that there may have been half a dozen losses between the teams heading into this game as it would have been to predict zero losses.

But here we are, and that is not the case.  To recap what's gone on so far this season for those of you who have been living under a rock...

Villanova got two marquee wins (Kansas, Iowa) en route to winning the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament.  Both Kansas and Iowa are ranked in the top 15 over at kenpom.com.  In addition, they have been romping their other Big 5 rivals to the tune of an average 25 point margin of victory.

Syracuse got three good wins (Minnesota, California, Baylor) en route to winning the Maui Invitational, as well as victories over Indiana and St. John's in regular non-conference play.  That gives them 5 top-60 wins overall, arguably one of the best slates of good wins in the country at this point in the season.

Both teams have seen freshman guards emerge and become key contributors.  Tyler Ennis is 8th in the country in steals and 2nd in the country in assist-to-turnover ratio, and is slowly starting to elbow his way into "most important freshman" conversations nationally.  Josh Hart has slowly seen his minutes increase as the season has gone on, and has rewarded Jay Wright for the faith in him by posting the 31st best offensive efficiency rating in the nation.

Daniel Ochefu and Rakeem Christmas are both in the top 50 nationally in block percentage.

And Jay Wright continues to run neck and neck with John Calipari in the most bottles of hair gel used per game and halftime adjustments to suit wrinkles.

So it has been a good start to the season, no doubt.  Lots of wins, high rankings, and players littering various leaderboards.  So if we can establish that both teams are clearly good and their early season starts are not flukes, then we should be in for a good, tight battle on Saturday.  What will be the key storylines that will determine the outcome of this game?

1)  Big Brother Mind Games

Stop me if you've heard this before.  Tyler Ennis' brother, Dylan, plays for Villanova.  If you haven't heard that before, get ready to be informed of that situation repeatedly over the next couple of days and during the 2 hour broadcast.  If there's one thing we know, it's that sports reporters and broadcasters are as fascinated by family connections as seagulls are by shiny objects.

If you've been paying any attention to my blog over the past few weeks, you'd also know that I have been fawning over Tyler Ennis.  He has been putting up excellent numbers so far this season, and most teams have had no answer to slow him down.

Enter Dylan.  You'd have to imagine that Dylan has some inside insight from years of playing with and against his younger brother.  Whether that translates to slowing down Tyler or not could be the single biggest key to the game.

Syracuse has no other options at the point, so if Dylan (or any other Nova guard for that matter) is able to get under Tyler's skin or in his head and throw him off, the Syracuse offense could suffer.

I'm betting Tyler Ennis will be just fine, but it's worth keeping an eye on.

2)  Trevor Cooney's 3-point shooting

Cooney has been in the zone early this season, knocking down 5 3-pointers in 5 of the last 7 games.  However, in the St. John's game he was completely neutralized by a bigger, more athletic D'Angelo Harrison.

The big question is this.  Was that game just an aberration, or did St. John's figure out a way to defend Cooney that will allow other teams with bigger, athletic wing defenders to take him out of the game as well.

This weekend's matchup should be a good litmus test for that very question.  Villanova is ranked 2nd in defensive efficiency and what they lack in size and depth up front, they more than make up for in size and depth on the wings.

Syracuse doesn't need Cooney to knock down 5 treys every game, but it also can't really afford for him to put up a doughnut and get benched for Michael Gbinje for the majority of the second half either.

3)  The quality of Jay Wright's hotel room

Is there a coach more dependent on the road conditions in the country?  Let's say his hair-dryer is broken and he can't get that coiffed, clean-cut look going.  Will his substitution patterns also become wild and out of control? What if his ironing board is a little too small and he can't get that perfect crease in his suit paints?  Will he be so concerned with how his image is being portrayed on a national television broadcast that he will accidentally call a timeout when he doesn't have any left?

I think it's at least a possibility.  If the Sheraton accepts my application to work in room service this weekend, we just may find out.

In all seriousness though, I'm really glad that Villanova is having a strong season this year so there are no questions about Jay Wright's future with the team.  That made all the employees at the Brooks Brothers in the King of Prussia Mall breathe a little easier about their job security this holiday season.

4)  The health of Jerami Grant

Last we saw Jerami, he was in a crumpled heap on the side of the court and all the Syracuse fans were holding their collective breath.

Suppossedly, he escaped any serious damage and will be good to go tomorrow afternoon, but it will be interesting to see if his explosiveness is compromised or if the coaching staff limits his minutes at all.

This Syracuse team has been a very efficient offense so far this season (9th in the country), but there is not a lot of depth or explosiveness off the bench after Jerami.  This team can ill afford to have any lingering injury issues if they are going to reach their full potential.

5)  The impact of Syracuse's big men

The Jim Boeheim has made it clear that he thinks his team needs to do a better job getting the big men touches and letting them be involved in the offense if this team is going to continue to improve for March.  If there was ever an opportunity for Syracuse to do that, it would be this game.

Villanova has one player in their regular rotation that is taller than 6'7".  And that player, Daniel Ochefu, averages less than 20 minutes per game because he can't stay out of foul trouble.  In fact, in Villanova's biggest game of the season to date (vs. Kansas), Ochefu fouled out IN 9 MINUTES.  That is as impressive as eating the whole wheel of cheese and pooping in the refrigerator.  I'm not even mad.  Jay Wright may have been though.

If Syracuse can get Ochefu in foul trouble early, they could potentially spend most of the game on Saturday with the 3 biggest players on the court (Fair and Grant are both 6'8").  Let's just say if the big men don't get involved early and often in this game, I don't have much faith that it will happen at any point in the future either.

Prediction:

With all that being said, how do I see this game shaking out?

I feel like Villanova, while certainly a legitimate threat to win the Big East and much better than anyone expected, doesn't match up terribly well with Syracuse.

They jack up a lot of three-point shots, but don't have a particularly good shooter that scares you.  Syracuse's defense has tricked more than its fair share of opponents into settling for deep jumpers over the years and could easily do that again in the Dome this weekend.

Nova is also only so-so at protecting the basketball for a team that is so predominately dependent on guards in it's rotation.  Tyler Ennis and Trevor Cooney are both in the top 26 in steal percentage.  That could lead to some breakouts for open three-pointers and fast break dunks to get the crowd rocking.

On defense, Nova has been pretty good at forcing turnovers, but Syracuse has been even better at not committing them.

And while the Wildcats are a pretty good rebounding team for their size, they don't scare you in that regard so Syracuse should be able to hold their own as long as they show up.

I still expect Villanova to get hot from deep for a stretch at some point in the game and keep it close for most of the afternoon.  But in the end, I see Syracuse having just a little too much size and experience.  The Orange pull away late in the 2nd half for a 75-67 victory.