Because of all that's happened (The Duke game, Arizona's loss, the #1 ranking, Cooney's barrage, Keita's boo boo), I don't think I could possibly write a coherent, logical blog so I won't even try. Instead, I'll just throw some random ideas against the wall and see what sticks.
- Let's get this out of the way right off the top...
The 2013-14 Syracuse Orange. Your (undefeated) #1 ranked team in the country. It's not every day you get to say that, so let's all just take a moment to relax and bask in the early 21st century glory of our friend Nelly.
- With that being said, Syracuse fans shouldn't get too comfortable with the #1 ranking. There is a realistic chance Syracuse could be an underdog in potentially 3 of their remaining 8 games, starting tonight at Pittsburgh. How weird is that? An undefeated and #1 ranked team may be the underdog in nearly half of their remaining games.
I'm not an expert in sports gambling (only at needling Ryan Quinn at the opportune time to make a bet on the golf course), but I don't think I'm too off base here. It may not wind up being all 3 (or any of the 3 for that matter), but the fact that it's even a legitimate discussion is pretty crazy and shows how difficult a stretch lies ahead for Syracuse the next few weeks.
- Speaking of crazy, how often do you find a team that may be a bigger lock for a number #1 seed in their preferred regional than they are to win their own conference? I can't imagine very often.
Yet here we sit in that exact situation. Syracuse has a pretty firm grip on that #1 seed in the East Regional, to the point where even 2 or 3 losses the rest of the season probably wouldn't be enough to knock them out of their perch. However, with Virginia lurking only a game behind in the ACC Standings, those same 2 or 3 losses would very likely be enough to cost them an ACC title in their inaugural season. That March 1st trip to Charlottesville looms pretty large for the Orange. It may not have the luster of the return matches with either Pittsburgh or Duke, but it probably has more significance on the conference race than either of those two do.
- Why has Syracuse been able to remain undefeated this long and set record after record for best start in program history? Consistency.
By my count, this team has 5 legitimate weapons. C.J. Fair, Jerami Grant, Tyler Ennis, Trevor Cooney, and the 2-3 Zone Defense. On any given night, you can pretty much bank on what you are getting from 4 out of the 5 options (With Trevor Cooney being the lone exception - more on him in a minute).
The Orange have only allowed only 1 ACC opponent to top 60 points all year. Take it one step further and they've held as many opponents (3) to less than 50 points as they have allowed to score more than 55. They also get a ton of steals for the tempo at which their games are played. Despite limited possessions, Tyler Ennis and Trevor Cooney are tied for first place in the ACC in steals per game and C.J Fair is in the top 10 also. Those steals amount to just enough fast break opportunities to make a difference. 10 fast-break points in a game in the 50s is a huge deal, especially when your opponent has to work so hard to score every possession.
C.J. Fair has scored less than 15 points only 5 times this season. He has less than 5 rebounds in only 4 games this season (all in non-conference games). Meanwhile Jerami Grant was a little more variable in the early season, but since conference play has started has been about as automatic for 12+ points and 8+ rebounds as they come. Meanwhile Composed Tyler Ennis (that's his official name now), is money in the bank for 10+ points, 5+ assists, and hardly any turnovers.
Add it all together and the Orange are essentially starting every game at 40-50 points in the bank. Considering we just covered how rarely opponents top 55 points against Syracuse this season. That means all they have to scrap together out of Trevor Cooney, Rakeem Christmas, and the bench is about 10 points to feel safe. Considering Cooney average 14 points per game himself, it's pretty easy to see the recipe for how the Orange have remained undefeated to this point in the season. I may not have taken a math class in quite some time, but unless the Common Core has changed things that much I'm pretty sure 50 + 14 = 64 > 55. Does that still work? Can we get John King on the horn and see if I get full credit for that short-hand?
- As promised earlier, back to Trevor Cooney. He has officially become the single biggest wildcard in the Orange tournament run. If Cooney is knocking down his threes, even just at a respectable rate, the Orange are going to be nearly impossible to beat. If he struggles to knock down the deep bombs in the tournament, like he did in the early portion of the ACC schedule, then the offense might stagnate and they will have to win games in the 50s with very little margin for error. Maybe I'm simplifying it a little too much, but that is this team's title hopes in a nutshell.
The one thing I have noticed lately (since the Duke game basically) that I've really liked out of Trevor is the attempt to get at least a few shots off the dribble from inside the arc as well as just the spot-up treys. If he can continue to do that, it will force teams to not be able to close out on him quite as quickly and could lead to 1 or 2 extra clean looks a game. At the very least, it will prevent teams from being able to completely take him out of the game just by running him off the three point line.
- The flip-side of my consistency argument would be the lack of true depth this team has, I suppose. Assuming full health for this team come tournament time (excuse me while I run spastically through a redwood forest knocking on every tree in sight), I don't think the lack of depth matters much. The pace these games are being played at, combined with the lack of foul trouble for our wings / forwards means that the Orange really won't need much out of their bench. I've always been of the mindset that having 5 very good players taking the lions share of your minutes is better than have 8-9 good players splitting minutes all game long.
That being said, Syracuse fans had a sharp wake-up call just last game when we were reminded of how fleeting success can be with one false step or fluke bounce. The Baye Moussa Keita would not have been devastating because he plays 30 minutes a game or averages a double-double. His statistical impact is the sliver on a pie chart that says - "Other - 1%".
But it would have been devastating for the intangible impact it would have on this team. Is Christmas going through the motions to start a game? Who are you putting in if you want to yank him to send a message? Or maybe Christmas picked up two fouls in the first five minutes. Now Jerami Grant has to slide over to center and subject himself to potentially also getting into foul trouble.Luckily it sounds like we can all sigh a breathe of relief and Keita's knee won't keep him out for any significant amount of time. Of course Orange fans now officially have their guards up until the clock strikes 0:00 for the last time this season, just waiting with bated breath, hoping against hope that the basketball gods won't see fit to smite down another potential contender before our eyes like with Arinze Onuaku's injury a few years ago.
- Finally, let's end this on a fun note. For those of you who are Time Warner customers, I have a special treat for you.
Listen, we all know it's fun to blast Time Warner for their incompetence and complain about how they couldn't get their act together to figure out a deal with the ACC to get all of Syracuse's non-conference games broadcast locally on tv (and avoid the infuriation of trying to deal with buffering over the internet).
But let's give credit where credit is due. Orange Overtime is a hidden gem. Broadcast on Time Warner Sports Network for the 30 minutes after each game, it features highlights and analysis of the game and then finally (and most importantly) is closed with Jim Boeheim's postgame press conference. I don't think I need to tell any true Syracuse fan how much enjoyment can be derived from watching a Boeheim press conference. I can not recommend watching this show highly enough. It has permanent save status on my DVR.
Here's an example from after the second Miami game...
My personal favorite sections are the barbs / back-handed compliments thrown at Bay Moussa Keita (around the 2:45 mark) and Trevor Cooney (around 4:30 mark).
Not go check your 'On Demand' feature and enjoy the rest of them. You're Welcome America.
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