Rambling Man

I've finally awoken from my post Syracuse / Duke game beer and food induced coma long enough to take stock of what seven new transgressions Justin Bieber has added to his rap sheet and reflect on what has occurred on the hardwood over the last 10 or so days.

Because of all that's happened (The Duke game, Arizona's loss, the #1 ranking, Cooney's barrage, Keita's boo boo), I don't think I could possibly write a coherent, logical blog so I won't even try.  Instead, I'll just throw some random ideas against the wall and see what sticks.

-  Let's get this out of the way right off the top...

The 2013-14 Syracuse Orange.  Your (undefeated) #1 ranked team in the country.  It's not every day you get to say that, so let's all just take a moment to relax and bask in the early 21st century glory of our friend Nelly.

-  With that being said, Syracuse fans shouldn't get too comfortable with the #1 ranking.  There is a realistic chance Syracuse could be an underdog in potentially 3 of their remaining 8 games, starting tonight at Pittsburgh.  How weird is that?  An undefeated and #1 ranked team may be the underdog in nearly half of their remaining games.

I'm not an expert in sports gambling (only at needling Ryan Quinn at the opportune time to make a bet on the golf course), but  I don't think I'm too off base here.  It may not wind up being all 3 (or any of the 3 for that matter), but the fact that it's even a legitimate discussion is pretty crazy and shows how difficult a stretch lies ahead for Syracuse the next few weeks.

-  Speaking of crazy, how often do you find a team that may be a bigger lock for a number #1 seed in their preferred regional than they are to win their own conference?  I can't imagine very often.

Yet here we sit in that exact situation.  Syracuse has a pretty firm grip on that #1 seed in the East Regional, to the point where even 2 or 3 losses the rest of the season probably wouldn't be enough to knock them out of their perch.  However, with Virginia lurking only a game behind in the ACC Standings, those same 2 or 3 losses would very likely be enough to cost them an ACC title in their inaugural season.  That March 1st trip to Charlottesville looms pretty large for the Orange.  It may not have the luster of the return matches with either Pittsburgh or Duke, but it probably has more significance on the conference race than either of those two do.

-  Why has Syracuse been able to remain undefeated this long and set record after record for best start in program history?  Consistency.

By my count, this team has 5 legitimate weapons.  C.J. Fair, Jerami Grant, Tyler Ennis, Trevor Cooney, and the 2-3 Zone Defense.  On any given night, you can pretty much bank on what you are getting from 4 out of the 5 options (With Trevor Cooney being the lone exception - more on him in a minute).

The Orange have only allowed only 1 ACC opponent to top 60 points all year.  Take it one step further and they've held as many opponents (3) to less than 50 points as they have allowed to score more than 55.  They also get a ton of steals for the tempo at which their games are played.  Despite limited possessions, Tyler Ennis and Trevor Cooney are tied for first place in the ACC in steals per game and C.J Fair is in the top 10 also.  Those steals amount to just enough fast break opportunities to make a difference.  10 fast-break points in a game in the 50s is a huge deal, especially when your opponent has to work so hard to score every possession.

C.J. Fair has scored less than 15 points only 5 times this season.  He has less than 5 rebounds in only 4 games this season (all in non-conference games).  Meanwhile Jerami Grant was a little more variable in the early season, but since conference play has started has been about as automatic for 12+ points and 8+ rebounds as they come.  Meanwhile Composed Tyler Ennis (that's his official name now), is money in the bank for 10+ points, 5+ assists, and hardly any turnovers.

Add it all together and the Orange are essentially starting every game at 40-50 points in the bank.  Considering we just covered how rarely opponents top 55 points against Syracuse this season. That means all they have to scrap together out of Trevor Cooney, Rakeem Christmas, and the bench is about 10 points to feel safe.  Considering Cooney average 14 points per game himself, it's pretty easy to see the recipe for how the Orange have remained undefeated to this point in the season.  I may not have taken a math class in quite some time, but unless the Common Core has changed things that much I'm pretty sure 50 + 14 = 64 > 55.  Does that still work?  Can we get John King on the horn and see if I get full credit for that short-hand?

-  As promised earlier, back to Trevor Cooney.  He has officially become the single biggest wildcard in the Orange tournament run.  If Cooney is knocking down his threes, even just at a respectable rate, the Orange are going to be nearly impossible to beat.  If he struggles to knock down the deep bombs in the tournament, like he did in the early portion of the ACC schedule, then the offense might stagnate and they will have to win games in the 50s with very little margin for error.  Maybe I'm simplifying it a little too much, but that is this team's title hopes in a nutshell.

The one thing I have noticed lately (since the Duke game basically) that I've really liked out of Trevor is the attempt to get at least a few shots off the dribble from inside the arc as well as just the spot-up treys.  If he can continue to do that, it will force teams to not be able to close out on him quite as quickly and could lead to 1 or 2 extra clean looks a game.  At the very least, it will prevent teams from being able to completely take him out of the game just by running him off the three point line.

-  The flip-side of my consistency argument would be the lack of true depth this team has, I suppose.  Assuming full health for this team come tournament time (excuse me while I run spastically through a redwood forest knocking on every tree in sight), I don't think the lack of depth matters much.  The pace these games are being played at, combined with the lack of foul trouble for our wings / forwards means that the Orange really won't need much out of their bench.  I've always been of the mindset that having 5 very good players taking the lions share of your minutes is better than have 8-9 good players splitting minutes all game long.

That being said, Syracuse fans had a sharp wake-up call just last game when we were reminded of how fleeting success can be with one false step or fluke bounce.  The Baye Moussa Keita would not have been devastating because he plays 30 minutes a game or averages a double-double.  His statistical impact is the sliver on a pie chart that says - "Other - 1%".

But it would have been devastating for the intangible impact it would have on this team.  Is Christmas going through the motions to start a game?  Who are you putting in if you want to yank him to send a message?  Or maybe Christmas picked up two fouls in the first five minutes.  Now Jerami Grant has to slide over to center and subject himself to potentially also getting into foul trouble.


Luckily it sounds like we can all sigh a breathe of relief and Keita's knee won't keep him out for any significant amount of time.  Of course Orange fans now officially have their guards up until the clock strikes 0:00 for the last time this season, just waiting with bated breath, hoping against hope that the basketball gods won't see fit to smite down another potential contender before our eyes like with Arinze Onuaku's injury a few years ago.

-  Finally, let's end this on a fun note.  For those of you who are Time Warner customers, I have a special treat for you.

Listen, we all know it's fun to blast Time Warner for their incompetence and complain about how they couldn't get their act together to figure out a deal with the ACC to get all of Syracuse's non-conference games broadcast locally on tv (and avoid the infuriation of trying to deal with buffering over the internet).

But let's give credit where credit is due.  Orange Overtime is a hidden gem.  Broadcast on Time Warner Sports Network for the 30 minutes after each game, it features highlights and analysis of the game and then finally (and most importantly) is closed with Jim Boeheim's postgame press conference.  I don't think I need to tell any true Syracuse fan how much enjoyment can be derived from watching a Boeheim press conference.  I can not recommend watching this show highly enough.  It has permanent save status on my DVR.

Here's an example from after the second Miami game...

My personal favorite sections are the barbs / back-handed compliments thrown at Bay Moussa Keita (around the 2:45 mark) and Trevor Cooney (around 4:30 mark).

Not go check your 'On Demand' feature and enjoy the rest of them.  You're Welcome America.

Let the Rivalry Begin...

The Super Bowl is finally here!

(Oh yea, and there's some football game tomorrow too).

The day Cuse fans have been waiting for since the schedule was first announced is upon us.

1,914 career coaching victories.  Two candidates for National Freshman of the Year.  The preseason ACC Player of the Year.  An undefeated record on the line.  The #2 and #3 teams in Kenpom. College Gameday in the house.  An expected record-breaking crowd.  All those storylines are in play at the Dome tonight.  I guess you could say the announcers should be happy.

Since I'm a professional, I will try to take an unbiased look at some of the key storylines of this game and not just waste all my words bashing Duke.

I'll let this video do that for me instead...

On to the game!

1)  Duke's 3-point shooting

One of the strengths of the 2-3 zone is that it entices opponents to settle for lots of deep three-point attempts.  The flip side of that is that the zone is susceptible to a very good, very hot three-point shooting team. 

Entere Duke.  Duke has 4 players getting regular minutes who shoot at least 45% from deep.  And that doesn't even count Jabari Parker, who has to at least be considered a threat to drain a couple from beyond the arc as well.  The Blue Devils are also coming off a road victory at Pittsburgh on Monday night in which they shot 13-25 from three.  If they have a shooting performance like that again, they will be in a very good spot to pull off the road upset.

Syracuse will try to combat that by throwing more length at the Duke shooters than they are used to seeing, with Jerami Grant and C.J. Fair running out at shooters in the corners and on the wings.  Also working in the Orange's favor is the difficulty to break down the zone defense through dribble penetration, a Duke speciality.  Instead, they will have to get their open looks by swinging the ball around the perimeter and on the fast break.

 Hopefully, Duke wasted their hot shooting on the Panthers earlier this week and Syracuse is able to keep the bombs from deep at bay.

(For your viewing pleasure, we will end each segment with a photo of a Duke player getting dunked on.  A prestigious fraternity of which Jerami Grant and C.J. Fair will try to become members of tonight).

2)  Syracuse's Rebounding

Syracuse is #9 in the country in offensive rebounding percentage.  Duke has no player taller than 6'9" and plays multiple players 6'5" and shorter for long stretches.  

Jerami Grant is licking his lips.

Grant has been a terror on the glass in ACC play.  3 times he has had double-digit rebound games and he has had 8 or more in all but 2 games.  C.J. Fair has been no slouch either, having at least 6 in every game.  But as steady as C.J. has been, Grant has been spectacular.  The offensive rebounding numbers he is putting up are just stupid.

Grant has had 4 or more offensive rebounds in more than half the conference games, including 7 in the victory over Wake the other night.  Put in other words, Jerami Grant has as many offensive rebounds against Wake as Duke's starting big man averages total rebounds per game.

That is obviously huge for Syracuse because those rebounds often lead to either (1) Sportscenter Top 10 put-back slams or (2) foul trouble on the opposing teams big men when they foul on the follow-up attempt.

If Grant can crash the glass at the clip he's been doing the last few weeks, it will be a good sign for the Orange.

  

3)  Tempo

Syracuse has not allowed an ACC opponent to crack 60 yet this season.  Duke has only been held below 70 in ACC play 3 times.  What's that saying about the immovable object meeting the unstoppable force?

In one of his recent press conferences, Jim Boeheim was discussing how everyone has taken the tack of trying to slow down Syracuse and play a "grind-it-out" type of game and make it a close game.  He pointed out that sooner or later someone is going to switch it up and try to run with Syracuse.

My money is on this game being that game.

It will be a welcome relief for Syracuse fans to finally get to see some high-paced action, but it will certainly be interesting to see how the offense translates over.  On the one hand, slower paced games seem to play into Syracuse's strengths because they don't have a lot of catch and shoot players.  Most of their offensive comes from running off multiple picks and breaking down defenders.  On the other hand, getting into a running game could make it much easier for Trevor Cooney to find some open three-point attempts in transition and could lead to some breakaway dunks for Jerami and C.J.  All of these things are good things for potentially having the fans blow the roof off the Dome.

Although I think a game in the 50s or 60s favors the Orange, and a higher scoring game makes it more of a toss-up, I'm still excited to potentially see a game in the 70s.  It will be a great learning experience for potential matchups down the road in the NCAA Tournament to see whether Cuse can still succeed getting in a running game, or if they need to try to make all these contests the slower, more plodding games they have been playing most of this year.

4)  Freshmen

Jabari Parker.  Tyler Ennis.

Tyler Ennis.  Jabari Parker.

ACC Freshman of the Year.  ACC Player of the Year.  National Freshman of the Year.

Put the players in whatever order you want, but they are neck and neck for all three of the above awards.  There is a chance that whichever player / team gets the better of their two matchups this year, could potentially sweep all three of the awards listed above.

The amazing part of the above sentence is that 2 months ago, Parker was an early front-runner for National Player of the Year and Tyler Ennis was completely off the national radar.  Now here we are today and Ennis has burst onto the scene and forced his way into the national conversation.

These freshmen have been dominating the ACC leaderboards, with Parker 2nd in scoring and Ennis 2nd in assists and 1st in steals.

As far as tonight goes, Jabari will probably be much more noticeable.  He is just a high volume player who makes some super athletic plays that fill up the highlight reel.  But Tyler Ennis may have a bigger impact on the game in terms of all the plays he makes to set up the rest of his team.  I also don't think Ennis will be phased by the atmosphere, whereas I could see Parker pressing to really have a huge game and potentially shooting his team out of its offensive game plan at some point.

5)  Wings

Of course, Tyler Ennis and Jabari Parker don't figure to find themselves face to face very much on the court tonight.  There will be some equally enticing head-to-head matchups though.

Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood vs. C.J. Fair and Jerami Grant

This might be the best matchup of wings that you will see all season.  All 4 are currently projected to go in the NBA Draft next season, with all but Fair projected to go in the lottery.  And Fair was the preseason ACC Player of the Year.  So yea, I'm looking forward to watching these 4 go at each other all game.

In fact, is it too late to try and convince ESPN to just turn the game into a 2 on 2 NBA Jam style matchup between these three?  We can watch Rodney Hood drain threes from half-court and Jerami Grant break backboards with super 720 degree power jams when they catch on fire.  Come on Bill Simmons, get on this already.

  

My personal best scenario for tonight?  A couple Trevor Cooney threes and at least one Jerami Grant Sportscenter Top 10 quality dunk.  A double-double for C.J. Fair.  A 2-10 performance from the field for Jabari Parker.  And a fairly stress-free 78-67 victory for all 35,000+ fans to celebrate on Marshall Street afterwards.

Now if you'll excuse me, I need to go aimlessly pace around my house for the next few hours to get rid of all my energy so I only scare my daughter 7 times during the game with unnecessary yelling.