Nova vs Syracuse

Well, here we are.  December 28th and the long-awaited clash between two undefeated, top ten juggernauts has finally arrived.  Just as we always expecte...bwahahahahaha.

Sorry, I couldn't get that sentence out with a straight face.  I tried my best.

Let's face it.  Even the most ardent, die-hard, homer of a fan couldn't have expected either of these teams to be in this spot when the season started.  All I have to do is look in the mirror to tell you that one (Of course, that would be tough to do with Jay Wright standing in my way).  With the opponents that each team had on their schedule and the preseason expectations for both, it probably would have been just as realistic to guess that there may have been half a dozen losses between the teams heading into this game as it would have been to predict zero losses.

But here we are, and that is not the case.  To recap what's gone on so far this season for those of you who have been living under a rock...

Villanova got two marquee wins (Kansas, Iowa) en route to winning the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament.  Both Kansas and Iowa are ranked in the top 15 over at kenpom.com.  In addition, they have been romping their other Big 5 rivals to the tune of an average 25 point margin of victory.

Syracuse got three good wins (Minnesota, California, Baylor) en route to winning the Maui Invitational, as well as victories over Indiana and St. John's in regular non-conference play.  That gives them 5 top-60 wins overall, arguably one of the best slates of good wins in the country at this point in the season.

Both teams have seen freshman guards emerge and become key contributors.  Tyler Ennis is 8th in the country in steals and 2nd in the country in assist-to-turnover ratio, and is slowly starting to elbow his way into "most important freshman" conversations nationally.  Josh Hart has slowly seen his minutes increase as the season has gone on, and has rewarded Jay Wright for the faith in him by posting the 31st best offensive efficiency rating in the nation.

Daniel Ochefu and Rakeem Christmas are both in the top 50 nationally in block percentage.

And Jay Wright continues to run neck and neck with John Calipari in the most bottles of hair gel used per game and halftime adjustments to suit wrinkles.

So it has been a good start to the season, no doubt.  Lots of wins, high rankings, and players littering various leaderboards.  So if we can establish that both teams are clearly good and their early season starts are not flukes, then we should be in for a good, tight battle on Saturday.  What will be the key storylines that will determine the outcome of this game?

1)  Big Brother Mind Games

Stop me if you've heard this before.  Tyler Ennis' brother, Dylan, plays for Villanova.  If you haven't heard that before, get ready to be informed of that situation repeatedly over the next couple of days and during the 2 hour broadcast.  If there's one thing we know, it's that sports reporters and broadcasters are as fascinated by family connections as seagulls are by shiny objects.

If you've been paying any attention to my blog over the past few weeks, you'd also know that I have been fawning over Tyler Ennis.  He has been putting up excellent numbers so far this season, and most teams have had no answer to slow him down.

Enter Dylan.  You'd have to imagine that Dylan has some inside insight from years of playing with and against his younger brother.  Whether that translates to slowing down Tyler or not could be the single biggest key to the game.

Syracuse has no other options at the point, so if Dylan (or any other Nova guard for that matter) is able to get under Tyler's skin or in his head and throw him off, the Syracuse offense could suffer.

I'm betting Tyler Ennis will be just fine, but it's worth keeping an eye on.

2)  Trevor Cooney's 3-point shooting

Cooney has been in the zone early this season, knocking down 5 3-pointers in 5 of the last 7 games.  However, in the St. John's game he was completely neutralized by a bigger, more athletic D'Angelo Harrison.

The big question is this.  Was that game just an aberration, or did St. John's figure out a way to defend Cooney that will allow other teams with bigger, athletic wing defenders to take him out of the game as well.

This weekend's matchup should be a good litmus test for that very question.  Villanova is ranked 2nd in defensive efficiency and what they lack in size and depth up front, they more than make up for in size and depth on the wings.

Syracuse doesn't need Cooney to knock down 5 treys every game, but it also can't really afford for him to put up a doughnut and get benched for Michael Gbinje for the majority of the second half either.

3)  The quality of Jay Wright's hotel room

Is there a coach more dependent on the road conditions in the country?  Let's say his hair-dryer is broken and he can't get that coiffed, clean-cut look going.  Will his substitution patterns also become wild and out of control? What if his ironing board is a little too small and he can't get that perfect crease in his suit paints?  Will he be so concerned with how his image is being portrayed on a national television broadcast that he will accidentally call a timeout when he doesn't have any left?

I think it's at least a possibility.  If the Sheraton accepts my application to work in room service this weekend, we just may find out.

In all seriousness though, I'm really glad that Villanova is having a strong season this year so there are no questions about Jay Wright's future with the team.  That made all the employees at the Brooks Brothers in the King of Prussia Mall breathe a little easier about their job security this holiday season.

4)  The health of Jerami Grant

Last we saw Jerami, he was in a crumpled heap on the side of the court and all the Syracuse fans were holding their collective breath.

Suppossedly, he escaped any serious damage and will be good to go tomorrow afternoon, but it will be interesting to see if his explosiveness is compromised or if the coaching staff limits his minutes at all.

This Syracuse team has been a very efficient offense so far this season (9th in the country), but there is not a lot of depth or explosiveness off the bench after Jerami.  This team can ill afford to have any lingering injury issues if they are going to reach their full potential.

5)  The impact of Syracuse's big men

The Jim Boeheim has made it clear that he thinks his team needs to do a better job getting the big men touches and letting them be involved in the offense if this team is going to continue to improve for March.  If there was ever an opportunity for Syracuse to do that, it would be this game.

Villanova has one player in their regular rotation that is taller than 6'7".  And that player, Daniel Ochefu, averages less than 20 minutes per game because he can't stay out of foul trouble.  In fact, in Villanova's biggest game of the season to date (vs. Kansas), Ochefu fouled out IN 9 MINUTES.  That is as impressive as eating the whole wheel of cheese and pooping in the refrigerator.  I'm not even mad.  Jay Wright may have been though.

If Syracuse can get Ochefu in foul trouble early, they could potentially spend most of the game on Saturday with the 3 biggest players on the court (Fair and Grant are both 6'8").  Let's just say if the big men don't get involved early and often in this game, I don't have much faith that it will happen at any point in the future either.

Prediction:

With all that being said, how do I see this game shaking out?

I feel like Villanova, while certainly a legitimate threat to win the Big East and much better than anyone expected, doesn't match up terribly well with Syracuse.

They jack up a lot of three-point shots, but don't have a particularly good shooter that scares you.  Syracuse's defense has tricked more than its fair share of opponents into settling for deep jumpers over the years and could easily do that again in the Dome this weekend.

Nova is also only so-so at protecting the basketball for a team that is so predominately dependent on guards in it's rotation.  Tyler Ennis and Trevor Cooney are both in the top 26 in steal percentage.  That could lead to some breakouts for open three-pointers and fast break dunks to get the crowd rocking.

On defense, Nova has been pretty good at forcing turnovers, but Syracuse has been even better at not committing them.

And while the Wildcats are a pretty good rebounding team for their size, they don't scare you in that regard so Syracuse should be able to hold their own as long as they show up.

I still expect Villanova to get hot from deep for a stretch at some point in the game and keep it close for most of the afternoon.  But in the end, I see Syracuse having just a little too much size and experience.  The Orange pull away late in the 2nd half for a 75-67 victory.

Maui Invitational & ACC/Big Ten Challenge Recap

With Syracuse participating in the Maui Invitational and the ACC/Big Ten Challenge over the last few weeks, we've had an excellent opportunity to see Syracuse go against some NCAA Tournament caliber teams and really start to evaluate what this team is and what it could be.  Here's my takeaway from those games (with a few other random thoughts thrown in).

-  That may have been the best stretch of 4 consecutive wins that Syracuse has ever had in non-conference play.  I'm sure that may sound like hyperbole, but think about how often Syracuse (or any major conference team for that matter) even plays 4 teams of that quality in a row in non-conference play, yet alone wins all 4 of them.  According to the latest rankings over at kenpom.com, Baylor (#30), Indiana (#34), and Minnesota (#40) are all top 40 teams.  California is #61.  All 4 of them should at least be in the conversation for an NCAA Tournament berth.

-  Speaking of legitimate competion, 2 of Syracuse's next 3 games are against St. John's (#51) and Villanova (#5).  Meaning by the time Syracuse heads into ACC play in January, they will have already faced 6 potential tournament teams.  I don't know what will happen in those two games coming up, but Syracuse will definitely be favored in both and regardless of the results it will certainly only make them more battle-tested for their first run through the ACC gauntlet.

-  C.J. Fair.  Badass.  He recovered from that mauling to win tournament MVP honors, including a 24 point game against Baylor in the tournament final.  I don't know if C.J. Fair is going to wind up being a first team All-American or not (like I tried to argue earlier this year), but he has not disappointed so far this season.  He's about as automatic as they come for 15+ points a game.

-  While we're on the topic of that C.J. Fair dunk, I've got a few more quick observations before moving on.

 (1) Allow me to be the 837th person to make this joke, but in all the hoopla about cracking down on bumping cutters and hand-checking dribblers, I must have missed the part of the rule changes were they made punching a shooter legal.
 (2)  I always assumed "No blood, no foul" meant "Blood, Foul".  Apparently not.  I guess it is more like, "Blood, Foul? Mehhhhh, how about we just call a timeout and let you go sit on the bench and get that cleaned up".
 (3)  If there was a team that was going to make our star player bleed his own blood, it's fitting that it would be a team coached by a Pitino.  You're on notice Minnesota.  We can hate you just as easily as we can hate Louisville and Duke.
(4)  C.J. Fair is a really good dunker.  Like reallllly good.  Seriously, everyone come see how good he looks.  Over the last 4 years, he's compiled a highlight reel that I would put up against anyone in the country.  He may not be the highest jumper, but he has the "dunk in the opponents face" down to an art.  Just ask Otto Porter.

- The most surprising thing from these 4 games?  The play of Trevor Cooney and Tyler Ennis.  Check out these stat-stuffing box scores:

Trevor Cooney -  Scored in double figures all 4 games.  Hit 5 three-pointers in 3 of 4 games.  Had 2+ steals in 3 of 4 games.

Tyler Ennis -  Also scored in double figures in all 4 games.  Averaged 4 steals per game.  And the craziest stat of them all?  Had an INSANE 8.67 assist/turnover ratio.

Remember when coming into the season all the talk was about how our frontcourt was going to be one of the deepest in the country, but our backcourt was a huge question mark?  Not so much it turns out.  The concerns were valid in the preseason, but Trevor Cooney and Tyler Ennis have shut down that talk very quickly.  We're not quite to the point of saying "Michael Carter-Williams and Brandon Triche who?", but it's getting close.  Regardless of which backcourt you think is better, I don't think anyone can argue that this backcourt is way more fun and less maddening to watch.

-  Speaking of Michael Carter-Williams, a quick side note on him before finishing out my thoughts on this year's backcourt.  I know a lot of fans wanted to focus on what MCW didn't do (i.e. take care of the ball, make perimeter jump shots) and not what he did do (i.e. fill every category of the stat sheet, play pesky d, help lead a flawed team to the final four).  I saw plenty of places where he was getting buried for "not being ready for the NBA" and needing another year of seasoning.  Don't hear much of that talk anymore, do you?

MCW Stats:  17.7 points per game, 7.3 assists per game, 5.8 rebounds per game, and 3.1 steals per game

That leads all rookies in all four of those categories.  That's right.  A point guard leads all rookies in rebounds per game.  For those of you keeping track at home, it also makes him the heavy favorite to be the Rookie of the Year right now.  Plus that NBA contract means he can afford to pay for his Macy's bathrobes now.  Good for him.

-  Ok, back to this year's team.  Good to finally see the Trevor Cooney that everyone talks about from practices.  Cooney has already made 5 or more treys in a game 5 times this season.  For a frame of reference, our top marksmen from last year, James Southerland, only did that 4 times all season.  Gerry McNamara's career high in a season was 9 times.  Every Syracuse game I get a text from Steve Schirmer ruing his preseason poo-pooing of Cooney, while simultaneously being deliriously happy to finally see Good Trevor Cooney and giddily awaiting Thug Trevor Cooney's post-game tweets.

I'm sure he'll hit a cold-spell at some point this season, but as long as he is knocking down a few threes every couple games it completely changes the dynamics of our team.  Defenses will be forced to stretch out to cover him (especially when he is drilling them from as deep as he was against Indiana), which will open more driving lanes for Ennis and more room for Fair and Grant to operate in the mid-range.

-  And Tyler Ennis, what can you say about him other than he's as cool a customer as there is.  I don't think I've ever seen his expression change.  I've seen plenty of senior point guards with less composure than him, and he's only 9 games into his Syracuse career.  On the season he has a 4.9 assist / turnover ratio, which is good for 4th in the nation.

(Interesting side note: the top 4 are currently from Notre Dame, Pitt, Villanova, and Syracuse.  Cut to Pat Lynch nodding sadly that Villanova is the only team remaining in the Big East out of those 4).

Tyler Ennis may not be getting the love that other freshmen are in the national media (Jabari Parker, Julius Randle, Andrew Wiggins, etc.) because he doesn't project as a top 5 NBA pick and he doesn't put up huge scoring numbers.  But given our needs as a team, I wouldn't trade him for any of them and I'd argue he might be the most important freshman in the nation in terms of his team's success.

I have a feeling if he keeps playing like this as Syracuse gets into ACC play and on national tv more consistently, his name will start to get brought up more often in those freshman conversations and less as an after thought.

-  Speaking of television...  Thanks for nothing ACC.  Thanks to Time Warner Sports Network and the magic of DVR's, I don't think I had missed a Syracuse game in probably 4 or 5 years.  This year, I've already missed 3.  Get it together Time Warner and ACC.

-  Just to balance this out a little bit, allow me to say something negative about this year's team.  As (positively) surprising as the backcourt has been, the big men have been at least equally disappointing.  If you put them together, you get 12 points and 12 rebounds per game.  A pretty good center, no doubt.  Which makes them each 1/3 of a good center.  Not good, no doubt.  At this point, I'm pretty sure that Boeheim is solely looking for solid defense from this position and figuring his 4 best scorers will outscore the other team's 5 best scorers.  Honestly, I can't blame him.


It looks like Christmas may be one of those players who constantly teases potential, but never capitalizes on it.  DaJuan Coleman is looking more and more like an overrated high school prospect who put up big numbers solely by virture of being the largest man on the court in every game he played.  And as fun as last year's late season emergence was, it appears we are back to the old Baye Moussa Keita who is merely a body when the other two get in foul trouble or are going through the motions.

There's still time left, but I'm not holding my breath for any of these 3 to take a step forward.  Maybe Chinoso Obokoh will have a shot at decent minutes next season after all.

-  Looks like Tom Crean didn't spend the off-season learning how to coach a zone offense huh?  After being embarrassed by his offense's complete ineptitude during the Sweet 16 matchup last season, the Hoosiers looked like they were going to hang tough in the Dome all night.  Then all of a sudden, their offense went off the rails and nearly 13 minutes without a field goal later, this one was a laugher.  How do we get Tom Crean on the schedule more often?

-  I've said it here before, but it bears repeating.  We really are in a golden age for Syracuse basketball.  With their move up to #2, this marks the 5th straight season that Syracuse has been ranked in the top 5 of the country at some point during the season.  The last time that happened was 1986-1990.

-  They've twice been ranked #1 in the last 4 seasons.  The last time that happened was also during the 1986-1990 stretch.

-  In fact, since that 1986-1990 stretch Syracuse has only been ranked in the top 5 at some point during the season twice (1999-2000 and 2004-2005) in 18 seasons.

And it hasn't just been regular season success either.  We may not have been able to win a title during this stretch (no thanks to some bad luck - Arinze Onuaku - and dumb decisions - Fab Melo), but check out these NCAA Tournament stats over the last 4 years:

-  Syracuse has been a #1 seed (2010, 2012), a #3 seed (2011), and a #4 seed (2013).  They are well on their way to (at least) another top 4 seed this season.

-  They've made the tournament and won at least one game each season.  That may not sound like that impressive of a task for a top college basketball program, but you'd be surprised.  Check out the list of teams who can't say the same thing:  Duke (lost first round once), Indiana (missed the tournament two times), Kentucky (missed tournament once), Kansas (lost first round once), Michigan St (lost first round once), UNC (missed tournament once), Arizona (missed tournament twice), Louisville (lost first round twice), UCLA (missed two tournaments, lost first round once), Florida (lost first round once), UConn (missed two tournaments, lost first round once), Georgetown (lost first round 3 times), Villanova (missed one tournament, lost first round twice), Wisconsin (lost first round once), Butler (missed one tournament).  Pretty much the only teams I found out of the 20 or so that I looked at who could say the same thing are Ohio State and Gonzaga.

-  They've advanced to the Sweet 16 (2010), the Elite Eight (2012), and the Final Four (2013).

Enjoy it while it lasts Cuse fans, because their will be a day again in the future when we will have to watch the NCAA Tournament selection show to see if we will be in the field, not where or how high we will be seeded.

In the meantimes, here's to enjoying another season where that is not the case (and hopefully many more to come as Boeheim and Hopkins don't appear to be slowing down at all on the recruiting trail).  Cheers.