Sunday, October 21, 2012

Five Bold Predictions

If I had this blog last year, I would have made the following bold predictions:

-  Syracuse will be ranked #1 in the nation for five weeks and will finish the regular season 30-1
-  Fab Melo will nearly record a triple-double, seemingly set the record for most charges taken in a season, and rip out the heart of every Syracuse fan by being ruled ineligible on the eve of March Madness.  In other words, he will actually be relevant.
-  Doug Gottlieb will make fun of the Syracuse non-conference schedule approximately 2,082,923 times.  So will everyone else at ESPN.
-  Dion Waiters will be our best player by the end of the season and a top-5 pick in next year's NBA Draft.
-  Steve Mayne will drop Duke like a bad habit and come over to the good guys.  He will solidify this commitment by purchasing a Syracuse hat.

What?  No, really guys, I swear those would have been my predictions.  Come on, just let me have this one.

Ok, fine. Don't believe me.  I'll just have to use this space to make similarly Nostradamus-like predictions for this season.

1.  Michael Carter-Williams will earn first team all Big East honors and record a triple-double at some point this season.

As much as I love C.J. Fair and Trevor Cooney, I actually think Michael Carter-Williams will be the biggest breakout star of the season.  I think it's reasonable to expect that he may play 30 minutes per game this season, being the only true point guard on the team.  If you look at the stats he accumulated last year in only 10 minutes per game and triple them, you'd be looking at a stat line something like this:

10 points per game, 6 assists per game, 5 rebounds per game, and 3 steals per game.

Is that something I could interest you in?

I know you can't expect a straight linear relationship between minutes played and stats accumulated, especially since most of MCW's minutes last year came in the non-conference against lesser competition.  Still, I wouldn't be shocked at all, if he stuffed the stat sheet like that throughout the year and flirted with a triple-double on more than one occasion.

2.  DaJuan Coleman will finish in the top-5 in the Big East in rebounding this season and win Big East Rookie of the Year honors.

Making a preseason prediction about a Syracuse freshman big man (other than that they will be a "starter", yet play less than 5 minutes), is fraught with peril.  Boeheim has shown time and again his reluctance to trust his young frontcourt players, no matter how highly rated they were as prospects.  The 2-3 zone seems to have a learning curve for most of our younger players who are used to playing man-to-man.  And with Coleman, there's the added risk of whether or not his conditioning (and an unlimited dining hall card) will allow him to make it up and down the court for 25 minutes a game.

With that being said, Coleman is a beast on the boards, averaging 15 rebounds per game his senior season of high school.  He has reportedly worked really hard all off-season on his weight and is down 40 pounds.  And this was a notoriously bad rebounding team last season, so he shouldn't have too much competition from his teammates.

So with every risk for Coleman, there is equal opportunity.  I think he'll be good enough to garner 20-25 minutes of playing time, and if he does he could easily get 8-10 rebounds per game.

3.  Syracuse will lead the Big East in 3-point shooting percentage.

Fact:  Syracuse finished 4th in the Big East in three-point field goal percentage last season.

Fact:  This was with Trevor Cooney cheering from the bench

Fact:  Trevor Cooney has the best jumper since Larry Bird.

Ok, the last fact may be slightly embellished, but Gerry McNamara has gone on record as saying that Cooney has the best pure shooting stroke he's ever seen.  Saying that anybody is a better shooter than Gerry in Orange country is tantamount to saying they're a better shooter than Larry Bird.  Even if it was Gerry who said it himself.

Brandon Triche and James Southerland are no slouches from behind the arc either and there are rumors (probably started by me) that C.J. Fair just may be a threat from deep this year as well.

Add it all up, and I think we'll be much better than last season and possibly the best team in the conference.

4. Rick Pitino and Jim Boeheim will brawl at mid-court during one of their matchups this season.

Nah, too easy...

Let's try this one instead.

4.  Syracuse will win the Big East Regular Season Title

Now this may not seem like that bold a prediction.  After all, Syracuse was voted #2 in the conference preseason media poll.  But considering that they did not get a single vote for first place, I'm going to allow myself to take this one and run with it.

Let's play a quick game.  What if I told you that there was a student who skated by, didn't turn in any of their assignments and was barely going to pass their courses?  What if I told you this same student made up some of their late coursework during finals week, aced their finals, and squeaked out a place on Dean's List?

Other than saying this student sounds an awful lot like me in high school, what would you say? Would you say that this student was probably going to be one of the top 3 students in the college the following year?  Or would you expect that he probably would fall back into some of his same bad habits and go through some rough patches throughout the year but ultimately do just enough to make Dean's List again?

Of course you would pick the second option.  Last year's Cardinals finished seventh in the Big East, barely above .500 in conference play.  They return essentially the same players plus a borderline top-100 recruit.  But they made it to the Final Four last year so everyone assumes they must be a favorite to do that again.  Don't get me wrong, I think the Cardinals will be a lot better than last year and will give Syracuse everything they can handle in the fight for the title.  I just don't think they should be considered a clear and away favorite, and I for one will not be the least bit shocked if we knock them off their perch and defend our title.

5.  Syracuse will win the National Championship

Why not?  I mean I didn't start a blog to write about some national title runner-up. ..

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